Severe WX Severe Risk 2/23-2/24

[NWMSGuy]

Yeah, HRRR is an outbreak. We’ll have to watch it but not all guidance is on board with that.

Aren't these short term models pretty reliable though?

 

[Freshgeek]

Aren't these short term models pretty reliable though?

Fairly, but we need to get into tomorrow to truly sound the alarms and scream the O word.

 

[KoD]

Aren't these short term models pretty reliable though?

For generalizations, yes. Rain vs sunshine.
To sound the alarm on a substantial threat we need substantial agreement and consistency. More often than not these events end up having a fly land in the ointment at some point. The current time of year has me increasingly persuaded that this will perform towards the more severe spectrum than the boring rain spectrum... But there's little way to know for sure. Things have to line up perfectly to get the more interesting severe weather and even if all the hi-res models agree on it happening, mother nature can (and often does) pull a fast one.
I'd get really interested if the seasoned met lurkers made an appearance. They usually show up when there's a pattern screaming trouble. Even then it's not a done deal though. Same goes the other way around too.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I saw a PDS sounding off the 18z 3KM NAM. SBCAPE over 2000 joules, and SRH of 300+.

 

[Xenesthis]

They may need to expand that enhanced to the east too... I just have a feeling this threat may persist past sunset. We really won’t know for sure until tomorrow!

 

[warneagle]

One analog that’s been popping up a lot on both the NAM and the HRRR is 11/10/02 at ILN. I don’t know how much stock one should put in those analogs but that’s...concerning.

 

[MichelleH]

One analog that’s been popping up a lot on both the NAM and the HRRR is 11/10/02 at ILN. I don’t know how much stock one should put in those analogs but that’s...concerning.

Oh boy...I remember that night VERY well!!

 

[amanda90]

It won't take much for this to be a problematic event in the mid-south. With all the rain we've had, trees are going to be downed left and right.

 

[Hailey]

Florence is nearing ten inches of rain in the last six days


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[Taylor Campbell]

NAM 12KM, and 3KM continiously improving instability. They along with HRRR, and RAP have CAPE closer to 2000 all way into southwest TN. I’m riding these hard because it has been a clear trend for warm sector instability to be greater. Several point soundings off the NAM are now triggering PDS tornado, and don’t forget that models usually under forecast storm relative helicity.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning for Amite and Pike Cos. in MS.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Those Hi-Res models are pushing the Severe threat farther into North Central Alabama as well. The greatest threat is still over the Mississippi Delta/Mid South east-northeast into Middle Tennessee and the Shoals.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Tornado warning for Amite and Pike Cos. in MS.

Is that the warm front that’s racing north ... appears

 

[warneagle]

Is that the warm front that’s racing north ... appears

Yep.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Fairly, but we need to get into tomorrow to truly sound the alarms and scream the O word.

There have rarely been events where they sounded the alarms the day before the event. I can only remember 2011 and there were still some doubts with some outliers.

 

[Richardjacks]

this is looking more serious for B'ham metro area than first thought

 

[ghost]

Florence is nearing ten inches of rain in the last six days
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Yep... I've been sitting right under it. And the folks to my north about 50 miles into Tennessee have got more than I have

 

[Weatherphreak]

It’s easy to find the warm front in North central Mississippi. Most convection is moving north east but you have one cluster riding the front almost due east.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Still a bit hesitant to sound the alarm since so many events last year trended down with just hours to spare, but yeah, if the pattern holds we could definitely be looking at some long-track supercells.

Yeah, that was the day of the long track EF4 that hit Holly Springs, MS

That was one to remember. It was an absolute beast on radar and I saw some absolutely insane motion on a chaser stream before it became rain-wrapped. It was overshadowed by the Garland EF4 on Christmas Day, but was definitely the more violent of the two from what I saw.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Still a bit hesitant to sound the alarm since so many events last year trended down with just hours to spare, but yeah, if the pattern holds we could definitely be looking at some long-track supercells.

That was one to remember. It was an absolute beast on radar and I saw some absolutely insane motion on a chaser stream before it became rain-wrapped. It was overshadowed by the Garland EF4 on Christmas Day, but was definitely the more violent of the two from what I saw.

I work in Marshall County, closer to Tennessee line off of 72, I left work early to hopefully get back to Tate County before the storm hit. Glad I took 240 to 55 that day instead of Hwy 4...it was an absolute mess and timing would have been close to when the tornado hit and me needing to pass through. In regards to tomorrow’s storms, I’m hoping this is not the time we cry wolf and it gets rough. I could still see this going Moderate just by the way people are talking about the dynamics.