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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
Fair, I guess I should wait for more runs. I just said that cause the HRRR is noted to downtrend at this specific period, regardless of the threat.
Also, 3/15 downtrended a little bit later than this IIRC, I think it was the morning runs that indicated that the threat was not as extreme as anticipated, but I could be wrong.
bckhd2
Member
Potentially tropical-ish system coming over the state Thursday. FFC mentioned something about increased severe potential when wind shear kicks up as system moves over.
That’s fair too. I just notice a tendency for people in the community to readily accept anything that suggests an uptrend, and dismiss any last minute downtrends as a fluke when they very well might not be. I know it’s not scientific, but the whole 3/15 thing left a big impact on me and how I view last minute downtrends.
With everyone focused on Wednesday's threat, PTC One and/or Arthur is gonna get the Sideshow Bob treatment
TornadoFan
Member
DanLarsen34
Member
I thought that was the lesson I took away as well, but of course I fell for it again with this system given how anomalous and unanimous the model data was.
At the end of the day, the models have missed far too many times with key details this year to be trusted right now. I empathize with Mets trying to figure out what may actually occur because it really does feel like we’re flying blinder than I would like with these events.
Even considering the recent downtrend in the models tonight, it does feel like we may be on a knife’s edge between an extremely dangerous and life-threatening event tomorrow and something less intense, but still significant.
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I think there's just a lot of fatigue with how many red herrings this year has had regarding severe weather events. I will say, that while I think the MCS is getting overdone by models, it is important to note that 4/27 of this year, which had an MCS as a fail mode, ended up bu$ting due to various upper level features getting botched by the models. I do think if there is a fail mode we may not even be aware of it.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Definitely some potential failure modes becoming apparent. Notably that insane LLJ and associated extreme SRH might be displaced well off to the east and north of the unstable warm sector. 00Z HRRR shows this fairly dramatically at FH020 valid for 20Z tomorrow. The first Day 2 outlook made mention of this in the discussion, despite also introducing the 15%+CIG2.
That said, with kinematics like that it wouldn't take much instability to get an updraft to produce a tornado if it can sustain.
That said, with kinematics like that it wouldn't take much instability to get an updraft to produce a tornado if it can sustain.
Jet streak timing and placement was a huge reason why 4/27 turned out the way it did, and it could be an issue this time, either because it arrives late and doesn't move the MCS quickly enough, or it just misses the risk area entirely.
This is a good time to trust the mets. Really anticipating the Day 1 outlook. I think the ceiling is the same as it ever was, but I also think the floor has dropped quite a bit too.
Kds86z
Member
I reckon this one is pretty much going to be a “morning of” event. If we wake up to a huge MCS plowing through the northern warm sector, we can pretty much call it in terms of meeting the full ceiling of potential. If not, still could be game on. This is not a slam dunk by any stretch.
I think the low level jet is going to play a major role. Not only is it perfectly oriented for pumping in instability immediately behind the morning MCS, it's so strong it may even help clear out any excessive subsidence. I think with the insane jet stream, remnant subsidence is going to aid in creating extremely tight updrafts and we're going to see some Bernoulli effect-driven pockets of low pressure in the upper levels acting as a secondary engine. . I actually think we're going to see the opposite of 3/15 morning runs, and some insane isolated cells are going to show up in the early morning runs. Just look at the wind speeds at every level on the RAP. It seems impossible to have these kinematics without an extreme environment. It's not January, it's June.
We need the LLJ to actually be in place, that is a mild uncertainty considering how wrong the models got it on 4/27, and how some model runs do show a displacement of the LLJ
DanLarsen34
Member
I had a very similar experience and close call with a cell like this back in 2024 in North Carolina. First, I had a very close call with the Rocky Mount EF-3 that happened in the remnants of Helene (September 27, 2024). The tornado passed within about a mile of the Dem office I was working in that day, and I was the one who alerted the building we were in that we needed to take shelter because a tornado was about to happen before the official warning came. The state-level Harris campaign decides to let all of us off mid-day because of the weather after that.
As I am driving back to the house I was staying at in Oxford. I see I’m approaching a storm and check radar. It’s clearly dying on radar. As I’m driving on I-85 between Henderson and Oxford, though, I notice the storm is rapidly rotating as I’m driving underneath the updraft. No joke, about 30 seconds after I drove under it, a tornado formed and went across the interstate before briefly impacting a structure or two and dying near the Vance/Granville community college. I only found out a tornado happened when I saw a news article about it the next day.
I share this story because that updraft and tornado looks almost identical to what I experienced and saw.
RFD66
Member
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including the potential
for long tracked, strong-violent tornadoes, is possible
Wednesday, especially south of I-80.
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
The forecast appears to be largely on track through Wednesday,
with no changes planned with the evening update. The new 00Z
HRRR has rolled in and certainly remains very concerning for
significant severe weather and heavy rainfall potential across
our area Wednesday afternoon. The main uncertainty continues to
revolve been how far northward into our area the warm front will
reach in the afternoon just ahead of a quickly approaching cold
front. This is particularly the case given that waves of
showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late morning hours
may hold the warm front south across central IL into the early
afternoon. However, in spite of this, a strong southern mass
response is expected to occur just in advance of the very
dynamic ~990 mb low shifting into WI. Accordingly, it remains
quiet feasible that the warm front will still be forced to surge
northward in the afternoon, potentially as far north as around
the I-88/I-290 corridor by mid to late afternoon. This thus adds
increasing concern for the potential for damaging wind gusts in
excess of 75 mph and tornadoes into the Chicago metro area,
particularly in the 2-6 pm timeframe.
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
950 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including the potential
for long tracked, strong-violent tornadoes, is possible
Wednesday, especially south of I-80.
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
The forecast appears to be largely on track through Wednesday,
with no changes planned with the evening update. The new 00Z
HRRR has rolled in and certainly remains very concerning for
significant severe weather and heavy rainfall potential across
our area Wednesday afternoon. The main uncertainty continues to
revolve been how far northward into our area the warm front will
reach in the afternoon just ahead of a quickly approaching cold
front. This is particularly the case given that waves of
showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late morning hours
may hold the warm front south across central IL into the early
afternoon. However, in spite of this, a strong southern mass
response is expected to occur just in advance of the very
dynamic ~990 mb low shifting into WI. Accordingly, it remains
quiet feasible that the warm front will still be forced to surge
northward in the afternoon, potentially as far north as around
the I-88/I-290 corridor by mid to late afternoon. This thus adds
increasing concern for the potential for damaging wind gusts in
excess of 75 mph and tornadoes into the Chicago metro area,
particularly in the 2-6 pm timeframe.
Sounds like it’s going to be a nail biter of a day where it comes down to tracking the location of the warm front and monitoring the warm sector environment if the front makes it sufficiently northward. The high-end scenario is still on the table it sounds like, but everything will have to play out the right (or wrong) way at the right time for it to happen.
Yeah after taking a closer look...I just don't know guys. The subsequent runs after the 00z also show the main risk area getting totally washed out in a way that will be tough to recover from fully, even with a good LLJ in play. Sure it COULD happen, but I have seem plenty of setups that depend on rapid airmass recovery end up falling short. The fact that the warm sector washout scenario is evident on subsequent runs after 00z means it isn't a fluke either. The most recent run actually has soaking precip and cloud cover in northern IL and IN lingering past the 1 to 2 PM timeframe. How could that possibly allow for adequate airmass recovery and timely northward movement of the warm front?
Edit: To clarify I’m talking about the high-end violent outbreak event potential. Strong tornadoes are still absolutely possible even if the more favorable scenario does not come to fruition,
Edit: To clarify I’m talking about the high-end violent outbreak event potential. Strong tornadoes are still absolutely possible even if the more favorable scenario does not come to fruition,
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