hurricaneguy
Member
Do not see a high risk upgrade coming. Storm mode very much on the table. I’m going to wait and see what times look like mid morning. Should have a better idea
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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
I mean there's no way real it's going to be anything besides a moderate. Way, way to conditional of a threat for a high.
Kds86z
Member
New day 1:
TO THE WEST, THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO, IL, AND INTO CENTRAL
IN WILL EASILY RECOVER AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A 60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST, WITH NOTABLY
STRONG WINDS AROUND 700 MB AS WELL (SURFACE TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES MAY
EXCEED 60 KT). A PLUME OF 65-70 F DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO IL AND WESTERN IN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME,
CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MATURE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO AROUND 21Z AND SPREADING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CLEARLY
SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR PROFILES, LINEAR STORM MODE IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE EVENT. LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY.
FINALLY, THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NEAR
THE IN/MI BORDER. EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED INTO MI, EXTREME
SHEAR AND LIFT MAY STILL YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO
RISK. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI.
TO THE WEST, THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO, IL, AND INTO CENTRAL
IN WILL EASILY RECOVER AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A 60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST, WITH NOTABLY
STRONG WINDS AROUND 700 MB AS WELL (SURFACE TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES MAY
EXCEED 60 KT). A PLUME OF 65-70 F DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO IL AND WESTERN IN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME,
CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MATURE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO AROUND 21Z AND SPREADING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CLEARLY
SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR PROFILES, LINEAR STORM MODE IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE EVENT. LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY.
FINALLY, THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NEAR
THE IN/MI BORDER. EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED INTO MI, EXTREME
SHEAR AND LIFT MAY STILL YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO
RISK. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI.
N0mz
Member
Kinda weird wording. Very confident IMO but not exactly strong wording.
It definitely sounds like at least a step away from the violent, high-end intensity tornado environment that was the main focal point of this event a couple days ago. Definitely still some strong tornadoes on the table, but the language being used doesn't sound quite as high-end.