Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

Thank you Mr. Griffin

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[SmokeEater]

Random TW going right for Joplin, MO.

 

[jiharris0220]

I love Nixon, but this is a bit of a stretch to say the least ngl.
Shear is very much still strong 2km above the surface and even just giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming it was weak, it in no way would halt the inertial momentum induced by the low level jet.
If storms failed to produce long track tornadoes, it will either be from the surface inversion in that sounding or anemic updrafts due to poor vertical instability. But again, upper level forcing largely counter acts this and storms near the warm front won’t have anemic updrafts. If they fail, it most likely will be due to that surface inversion.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

Seeing a massive drop in enthusiasm/confidence in a high-end solution and overall language after that 00z run

 

[jiharris0220]

Seeing a massive drop in enthusiasm and language after that 00z run

The classic last minute downtrend. The models are going above and beyond with that MCS.
We’ll see how it evolves in the morning, but if it turns out how the cams are depicting it, the northern mode of this setup will be done in by that surface inversion the MCS leaves behind.
At the same time, I can see a similar scenario like last Thursday were the thermal boundary laid out by said MCS actually ends up helping things more than expected.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[DanLarsen34]

Seeing a massive drop in enthusiasm/confidence in a high-end solution and overall language after that 00z run

Story of the year. Every single event has done this. I don’t recall a year where the models have struggled this much. The uptrend/downtrend happened with 3/15 last year as well, but that was kind of the exception last year? Even then, the 3/15 “downtrend” was from an April 27 redux to your more run of the mill Dixie event.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

I am no expert, but hasn’t there been some outbreaks that were consistent for days on models and then at last minute flipped only to flip back.

 

[buckeye05]

The classic last minute downtrend. The models are going above and beyond with that MCS.
We’ll see how it evolves in the morning, but if it turns out how the cams are depicting it, the northern mode of this setup will be done in by that surface inversion the MCS leaves behind.
At the same time, I can see a similar scenario like last Thursday were the thermal boundary laid out by said MCS actually ends up helping things more than expected.

Well if the northern part of the setup is done in, that’s pretty much curtains for the main stage of the outbreak and the exceptional potential associated with that area. Sure there would still be sigtor potential but it’s a definite drop in the caliber of event.

Definite shades of 3/15/2025 here with the last minute backing away from something potentially historic. If we start seeing run to run consistency showing a less high-end solution and a messier mode, we can probably assume there’s something to it, as there was with the 3/15 event.

 

[eep]

Well if the northern part of the setup is done in, that’s pretty much curtains for the main stage of the outbreak and the exceptional potential associated with that area. Sure there would still be sigtor potential but it’s a definite drop in the caliber of event.

Definite shades of 3/15/2025 here with the last minute backing away from something potentially historic. If we start seeing run to run consistency showing a less high-end solution and a messier mode, we can probably assume there’s something to it, as there was with the 3/15 event.

Ehhh, I think that it's just a few one off runs. I am a bit curious overall about the threat though as this year has had some atrocious model performances.

Also I feel like morning systems have been notoriously messed up this year, I recall that even in the late april Arkansas bu$t the MCS fell apart faster than anticipated.

 

[buckeye05]

Ehhh, I think that it's just a few one off runs. I am a bit curious overall about the threat though as this year has had some atrocious model performances.

Based on what exactly? I distinctly remember that being said when 3/15 started downtrending last minute.