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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

New day 1:

TO THE WEST, THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO, IL, AND INTO CENTRAL
IN WILL EASILY RECOVER AND RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A 60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST, WITH NOTABLY
STRONG WINDS AROUND 700 MB AS WELL (SURFACE TO 3 KM SHEAR VALUES MAY
EXCEED 60 KT). A PLUME OF 65-70 F DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO IL AND WESTERN IN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME,
CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.

BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MATURE ROUGHLY
FROM NORTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO AROUND 21Z AND SPREADING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE CLEARLY
SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR PROFILES, LINEAR STORM MODE IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE EVENT. LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY.

FINALLY, THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NEAR
THE IN/MI BORDER. EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED INTO MI, EXTREME
SHEAR AND LIFT MAY STILL YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO
RISK. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI.
 
N0mz said:
Kinda weird wording. Very confident IMO but not exactly strong wording.
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It definitely sounds like at least a step away from the violent, ultra high-end intensity tornado discussion that was the main focal point of this event a couple days ago. Definitely still some strong tornadoes on the table, but the language being used doesn't sound quite as high-end.
 
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To give perspective on how much this event has crashed and burned on cams. (Left is 24 hours ago, right is now)
1781682371548.png1781682532712.png
It seems looking at this, the jet orientation has changed to where it’s not curving up across the exit region. This has led to everything including the surface low and morning MCS to shift south and move slower.
It’s to the point that there will only be an 1 hour of destabilization for storms to use, this is most certainly going to be on the far lower end of the potential this once had.

However, if, and it’s looking apparent already on radar, this is a big if, the MCS turns out to be skinny and fast moving as to leave a small enough cold pool behind it (like the scenario was 24hours ago) a high end event is back on the table).
But again, looking at radar, the hrrr is still underestimating storm coverage, so this scenario is swiftly heading towards the stars.

Im expecting at least 2 or 4 sig tors now, nothing higher though, but who knows, maybe this system can surprise.
 
As further explanation of the main failure mode here, all you have to do is look at this sounding.
It was explained earlier in this thread that in high shear environments, low cape isn’t a problem, this is true.
What is a problem though, is that when this MCS system moves through and leaves behind a cold pool, what happens is that the LLJ rapidly advects warm air from the south, (air that’s 80 to 90degrees, and drier) over this cold pool. This leads to a surface inversion.
The rain soaked surface stays cool while the air just above warms up. This is a deal breaker for tornadoes regardless of how high the shear is. Tornadoes do not like slabs of cool, dry air at the surface, literally anything but that.
1781684061659.png
 
*Almost* every major outbreak in history has had some type of morning to late morning MCS and many days thats have been complete busts have as well... the shear is in place today for it to be historic and its all going to depend on the dance between that environment and the MCS. As always, its going to be a razor thin line between the ceiling and floor of the event... CAMS have been terrible this year so I think im not going to look too deep into anything this morning and just watch how it all plays out.
 
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eep said:
Ehhh, I think that it's just a few one off runs. I am a bit curious overall about the threat though as this year has had some atrocious model performances.

Also I feel like morning systems have been notoriously messed up this year, I recall that even in the late april Arkansas bu$t the MCS fell apart faster than anticipated.
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I'm not gonna back away from a downtrend just because now I look like a absolute buffoon calling for high end tornadoes. 06z continues this trend of a rather lackluster look, and it seems we've downtrended. 12z HRRR is the last stand. And if that run chooses to give the northern portion a go, we'll see.

AS @buckeye05 said, many people don't tend to trust the HRRR on events when they downtrend on early mornings runs but the uptrends are all for. When the HRRR downtrends, it is usually very much right. I think we're avoiding the high end scenario. BUT. It's all down to morning convection. If models underestimate the speed and the warm front lifts north, we're back in it again. We stir the line between an regular significant svr event and a very high end type one. Anomalous days yield anomalous results.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Trends so far, the 10z hrrr is too far north with the MCS but at the same time, 80miles too slow.
View attachment 53500View attachment 53501
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And I see the HRRR is already underestimating the MCS speed as it did last week. The razor thin line between a violent tornado that may be remembered and a event with a few strong tornadoes in the line is absurd.
 
Schoeppeya said:
*Almost* every major outbreak in history has had some type of morning to late morning MCS and many days thats have been complete busts have as well... the shear is in place today for it to be historic and its all going to depend on the dance between than that environment and the MCS. As always, its going to be a razor thin line between the ceiling and floor of the event... CAMS have been terrible this year so I think im not going to look too deep into anything this morning and just watch how it all plays out.
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Agree to some extent, but trend watching cams and comparing those trends to reality is important to get a good idea on how an event is going to play out ahead of time.
As it stands right now, most cams are actually too far north with the MCS, that’s a downside.
However, all of them are way off base with the speed by 50 to 80miles.
So with this information, it’s wise to assume that the MCS will be an hour ahead in progress and slightly further south in reality. This will give much needed time for airmass recovery, but at the same time, the warm front might be limited further south.
 
buckeye05 said:
I reckon this one is pretty much going to be a “morning of” event. If we wake up to a huge MCS plowing through the northern warm sector, we can pretty much call it in terms of meeting the full ceiling of potential. If not, still could be game on. This is not a slam dunk by any stretch.
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Welp looks like we can call it in terms of meeting the ceiling, that’s a hefty MCS chugging through the warm sector
 
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