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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

UpperLevelLOL said:
Welp looks like we can call it in terms of meeting the ceiling, that’s a hefty MCS chugging through the warm sector
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Um, no, the MCS isn’t even in the warm sector. Models ever since the beginning have had an MCS, the warm front is trailing behind it from the southwest.
The failure mode is the cold pool left behind from the MCS limiting the northeastward progression of the warm front.
It can very much go either way right now still.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Agree to some extent, but trend watching cams and comparing those trends to reality is important to get a good idea on how an event is going to play out ahead of time.
As it stands right now, most cams are actually too far north with the MCS, that’s a downside.
However, all of them are way off base with the speed by 50 to 80miles.
So with this information, it’s wise to assume that the MCS will be an hour ahead in progress and slightly further south in reality. This will give much needed time for airmass recovery, but at the same time, the warm front might be limited further south.
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Sure but like we saw 4/27 this year we can think the MCS is the failure mode and it ends up being something completely different.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
140-170 mph most probable intensity yet they mention a "tornado threat" only. Not even one mention of a intense to violent tornado. Inconsistency is infuriating with this intensity thing lately.

It is Broyles and Guyer though so you don't know..
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Might have been a misclick honestly. Maybe they wanted to go to the red intensity bin for wind and the light orange intensity bin for tornadoes?
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
140-170 mph most probable intensity yet they mention a "tornado threat" only. Not even one mention of a intense to violent tornado. Inconsistency is infuriating with this intensity thing lately.

It is Broyles and Guyer though so you don't know..
Click to expand...
Yea, the warm sector won’t even be in place for this to even be a remote possibility by mid morning.
I would imagine there has been a mistake of some kind.
 
12z HRRR calls for this event to be essentially a low end standard summer threat with a chance of a couple sigtors. High TD spreads and even messier propagation of mode makes this a questionable day now. Further east, with very strong low level shear and close enough TD spreads is your best look for strong tornadoes.

I want to say that yesterday, i made some highly irresponsible comments explicitly calling for EF4-EF5 tornadoes and got ahead of myself looking at model data. I want to apologise for fearmongering this event, and not considering the failure modes at play. A significant svr event still looks to be on tap but it will be nowhere towards the event depicted previously.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
12z HRRR calls for this event to be essentially a low end standard summer threat with a chance of a couple sigtors. High TD spreads and even messier propagation of mode makes this a questionable day now. Further east, with very strong low level shear and close enough TD spreads is your best look for strong tornadoes.

I want to say that yesterday, i made some highly irresponsible comments explicitly calling for EF4-EF5 tornadoes and got ahead of myself looking at model data. I want to apologise for fearmongering this event, and not considering the failure modes at play. A significant svr event still looks to be on tap but it will be nowhere towards the event depicted previously.
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Still 0-1 SRH values of 600+, the ceiling of this event is still way way above a low end standard summer threat.
 
Schoeppeya said:
Still 0-1 SRH values of 600+, the ceiling of this event is still way way above a low end standard summer threat.
Click to expand...
Shear doesn't overcome vertical instability if there's dry air at the surface with the surface inversion. It is June. Airmass recovery could very well prove me wrong, and we return to the high end ceiling but I see something more in the middle today.
 
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