• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2025

Taylor Campbell said:
I agree, Clancy! This is still too all over the place to feel confident about it.
Click to expand...
The ensembles r much more consistent showing a negative tilt amp trough … look for SPC highlight a area in the 4 to 8 days frame if models don’t start waffle overnight
 
Taylor Campbell said:
I agree, Clancy! This is still too all over the place to feel confident about it.
Click to expand...
Still a lot of uncertainty for sure, but the ceiling is definitely quite high here. The floor is absolutely very low too, though. I seem to recall that the event preceding last year’s big December tornado event was a big b**t even when the models were converging to a big time solution at about the 5-6 day timeframe, so nothing is slam dunk until the day of. But still, this trough definitely has my attention for the time being.
 
I absolutely agree. Regarding Thursday, I've seen a few eying this threat elsewhere and there is clear failure modes to a sleeper tor threat in Oklahoma.

I mean, thermos are pretty poor and several models do show issues with the mid levels. Moisture return isn't exactly bad for October though. I still don't see Thursday being much.

Regarding the threats AFTER? The 24th honestly seems pretty poor, and plenty of models downtrended on that potential it had for at least a minor all hazards threat which is great.

25th in Eastern TX, damaging wind and large hail moreso.

Now... The 27th. The latest GFS run really isn't that bullish but that's to be expected at this range a nd ensembles still do say watch out. Admittedly, around 21z in NW AR, GFS hints at some low level shear to make it work and perhaps a locally higher tornado threat. I will note, this is me explaining what the models are intending to show and are not really my personal thoughts but the 24th/25th i do agree on with a damaging wind/large hail aspect.

I'm not really thinking much about the 27th in depth at the minute, but even then the latest GFS still shows strong low level shear in some vicinity. The 27th needs a very close watch and even the SPC is showing strong language for their standards mentioning potential all hazards this far out.
 
N0mz said:
We're back (fuck AWS)! 10/27 looks gangbusters on the euro
Click to expand...
Well that was fun and full of lessons learned. AWS is on my $h1+list.

Will Smith Wow GIF by Bounce
 
WesL said:
Well that was fun and full of lessons learned. AWS is on my $h1+list.

Will Smith Wow GIF by Bounce
Click to expand...
Ah, so the outage WAS related to the AWS issues?

Although I wasn't here back then, I know the old forum was hosted on a member's server PC before the physical storage (HDD) was obliterated...

Did ya move from AWS or still using them?
 
TH2002 said:
Ah, so the outage WAS related to the AWS issues?

Although I wasn't here back then, I know the old forum was hosted on a member's server PC before the physical storage (HDD) was obliterated...

Did ya move from AWS or still using them?
Click to expand...
We will use their RDS which is what I had switched back to a week ago after we had some sluggish DNS on failover. The updated failover project will be my exciting weekend adventure :)
 
WesL said:
We will use their RDS which is what I had switched back to a week ago after we had some sluggish DNS on failover. The updated failover project will be my exciting weekend adventure :)
Click to expand...
Cool cool... Got a backup plan for (not if, but when) AWS falls flat on its face again?

Two other forums I'm a member of (Rimfire Central and VCFED) didn't seem to be affected by the outage. IDK off the top of the head what hosting they're using though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top