WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Oh, yeah, the thread still accounts for the 19th. My bad!Psst...need to put these in your weekend thread.
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
The time period from the 25th to around November 1st looks to be atleast semi active or some severe weather. As we get closer I'll be interested in seeing how the finer details pan out.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Well at least we all will be getting beneficial rain from this the 6-10 and 8-14 shows a wet pattern at least almost for the entire to the majority of the conus
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
AJS
Member
How does Houston look? I may make the time for a chase.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Maybe the chance for severe storms, perhaps all hazards but storms appear to be elevated so damaging wind and hail more so
AJS
Member
Ah okay. Good to know. Regardless, seems like the south may get quite a few days of severe weather.
Kds86z
Member
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
Ohhh thats totally comforting :/
Kds86z
Member
Was just looking at that, it's rather impressive.
Ozonelayer
Member
Indeed it is.Was just looking at that, it's rather impressive.
(Taken Near Texarkana)
It's looking significant to me. Im not a meteorologist but given the past couple of model runs this is concerning to me atleast.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
- Moderator
- #7,155
Day 4-8:
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential is likely to increase through the extended
forecast period as a series of upper troughs and enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft return to the central and southeastern
CONUS. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of moisture return
and instability.
...D4/Thursday-D6/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex...
A shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies into the High
Plains supporting lee cyclogenesis Thursday and Thursday night. In
the wake of the earlier frontal passage, modest low-level moisture
return is expected to take place east of the low and a lee trough
over the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward. Cooling
mid-level temperatures will allow for diurnal destabilization and
some organized severe potential as westerly flow aloft also
increases. Strong to potentially severe storms are possible
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday in vicinity of the surface low and warm
front across KS/OK, and along the lee trough into the TX Panhandle.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk and its evolution is
low, pending sufficient moisture return and the timing of the upper
trough.
Some severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArklaTex
D6/Saturday as the upper low moves eastward and low-level moisture
return continues. Confidence in the severe risk is limited, owing to
the potential for several prior days of convection.
...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D7-D8...
Greater severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a deep upper trough matures over the Plains
D7/Sunday and moves into the Midwest/MS Valley D8/Monday. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance show a strong cold front and low with
sufficient moisture/instability for severe storms capable of all
hazards from the eastern Plains and MS Valley late this weekend into
early next week. 15% severe probabilities could be needed in future
outlook cycles should model solutions converge on timing and
location of the greatest severe risk.
...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential is likely to increase through the extended
forecast period as a series of upper troughs and enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft return to the central and southeastern
CONUS. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of moisture return
and instability.
...D4/Thursday-D6/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex...
A shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies into the High
Plains supporting lee cyclogenesis Thursday and Thursday night. In
the wake of the earlier frontal passage, modest low-level moisture
return is expected to take place east of the low and a lee trough
over the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward. Cooling
mid-level temperatures will allow for diurnal destabilization and
some organized severe potential as westerly flow aloft also
increases. Strong to potentially severe storms are possible
D4/Thursday and D5/Friday in vicinity of the surface low and warm
front across KS/OK, and along the lee trough into the TX Panhandle.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk and its evolution is
low, pending sufficient moisture return and the timing of the upper
trough.
Some severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArklaTex
D6/Saturday as the upper low moves eastward and low-level moisture
return continues. Confidence in the severe risk is limited, owing to
the potential for several prior days of convection.
...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D7-D8...
Greater severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a deep upper trough matures over the Plains
D7/Sunday and moves into the Midwest/MS Valley D8/Monday. Ensemble
and deterministic guidance show a strong cold front and low with
sufficient moisture/instability for severe storms capable of all
hazards from the eastern Plains and MS Valley late this weekend into
early next week. 15% severe probabilities could be needed in future
outlook cycles should model solutions converge on timing and
location of the greatest severe risk.
tennessee storm chaser
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My interest level is increasing for late this weekend. For mid south Dixie regions
Ozonelayer
Member
Assuming the 12z and 18z GFS holds serve with TX/OK/AR, then I think a 15% is in order. I will say though, if any runs show an uptrend thats supported by pther runs, then a 30% might be needed later on in the week. Just calling it how I see it.
Also, considering they used "All Hazards Possible" and that usually includes tornadoes, I would say the SPC is quite interested, even at this range.
Also, considering they used "All Hazards Possible" and that usually includes tornadoes, I would say the SPC is quite interested, even at this range.
October 27th is very robust synopitcally on the GFS.
Sounding is elevated but get a look at this near Arkansas.
Sounding is elevated but get a look at this near Arkansas.
Still a lot to be ironed out, but there will definitely be something in store somewhere in the eastern half of the CONUS late this month. However, using the GFS as an example, the trough difference is stark between runs, and likewise will have implications on moisture return and wind fields. It's also very possible for the impressive-looking, clean trough at bottom right to eventually be modelled and verify as a ragged, over-extended mess - it's happened plenty of times before. Thermos actually have a chance at being decent, especially over MS and AL.
- Moderator
- #7,160
I agree, Clancy! This is still too all over the place to feel confident about it.