Yea, it was down for me nearly all day yesterday, and it only came back up this morning it seems
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
- Moderator
- #7,182
TalkWeather was down for a good bit yesterday due to AWS (Amazon) being down. I spent half the day having medical tests and came back to read the updates and nah, not gonna happen. Ah well, we're back now. Here's SPC's morning thoughts on the weekend:
...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D6/Sunday-D7 Monday...
Higher severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a Pacific trough and amplified westerly flow
develop over the western US D6/Sunday and move into the Plains and
Midwest D7/Monday. Substantial variability exists between multiple
ensemble and deterministic models regarding the evolution of the
trough and resulting surface pattern. More amplified and less
progressive solutions, along with some ML guidance, show the
potential for a deep surface low and strong cold front to develop
and sweep eastward. Should this occur, robust moisture return for
fall is likely to develop along with strong low and mid-level wind
fields across much of the central US. A favorable synoptic regime
could support widespread severe storm development with sufficient
instability/shear overlap for all hazards from the eastern Plains
into the MS Valley and Midwest.
This scenario remains highly uncertain with large variance noted
between both ensemble and deterministic solutions regarding the
structure and timing of the upper trough. Given the degree of
spatial and temporal variance, predictability remains too low to
justify probabilities in the extended forecast. However, 15% or
higher severe probabilities could be needed in future outlook cycles
should guidance trend towards a more unified/higher-end solution.
...Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D6/Sunday-D7 Monday...
Higher severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended
forecast period as a Pacific trough and amplified westerly flow
develop over the western US D6/Sunday and move into the Plains and
Midwest D7/Monday. Substantial variability exists between multiple
ensemble and deterministic models regarding the evolution of the
trough and resulting surface pattern. More amplified and less
progressive solutions, along with some ML guidance, show the
potential for a deep surface low and strong cold front to develop
and sweep eastward. Should this occur, robust moisture return for
fall is likely to develop along with strong low and mid-level wind
fields across much of the central US. A favorable synoptic regime
could support widespread severe storm development with sufficient
instability/shear overlap for all hazards from the eastern Plains
into the MS Valley and Midwest.
This scenario remains highly uncertain with large variance noted
between both ensemble and deterministic solutions regarding the
structure and timing of the upper trough. Given the degree of
spatial and temporal variance, predictability remains too low to
justify probabilities in the extended forecast. However, 15% or
higher severe probabilities could be needed in future outlook cycles
should guidance trend towards a more unified/higher-end solution.
Ozonelayer
Member
Wow, didn't expect that strong of wording regarding the risk.
N0mz
Member
Euro 12z from yesterday and 00z GFS were printing 3/14 again. But then the 00z Euro and the 06z GFS came in and threw a wrench in everything.
It's pretty wild that on the soundings I've been seeing the tornadic analogs are mostly all from April/May/June. Really gives a sense of how abnormally intense this set up could be for this time of year.
Monday is starting to pop a little bit
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, this is pretty intense but things are gonna change as evident since you posted this and this is why I'd recommend holding back on suggesting the likelihood of a significant outbreak just from one run alone. "if nothing changes" at this range is very rare
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Honestly, I kinda wish we had a thread dedicated to learning how to read HRRR, troughs and other weather stuff like Skew-Ts. I'd love to look more into this but I simply don't know how to. I've tried learning before; it's just difficult to pick up.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
Cam Nixon and Convective Chronicles both have great vids for that stuff, I gotta watch them atp but they are great
N0mz
Member
12z GFS pushes the big event back a day, to Tuesday the 28th
joshoctober16
Member
while not for the whole of skew-t this thread is about parameters and parts of some skew-t stuff.
https://talkweather.com/threads/gen...rd-type-sars-and-other-parameters.2416/page-5
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Strong low level windfields are certainly there no doubt and i can see the concern they have if models begin to get consistent with some of those "potent" runs the GFS has been in and out with
Yeah, and that has fairly potent low level shear with instability. Too early to call on what will be, but if trends on models turn consistent with this signal, that's when I'll really be paying attention.
N0mz
Member
Trey also has a discord (just google storm chaser coaching) that I’m in. Very helpful resource there.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Post in thread 'Severe Weather 2025'
https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-2025.2298/post-176612 here is a link to convective chronicles skew t log p and also upper air playlists
https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-2025.2298/post-176612 here is a link to convective chronicles skew t log p and also upper air playlists
I wouldn't be surprised for a risk area to be issued for Saturday sometime soon, nothing substantial but I think you'll see some severe that day