Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

The fact that that the first words from an SPC forecaster is "Oh no" is downright terrifying to me.

You know stuff's getting real when SPC forecasters start vaguetweeting

 

[jiharris0220]

FV3 weirdly only convects in tx and southern ok, but I think we all get the picture now.

 

[Fred Gossage]

“12k NAM initiating a sustained supercell in that EML environment when its parameterization is explicitly designed to not convect at all in the presence of dry mid-level air”

Well now I know why the nam does so poorly with dry lines and high EML environments, thank you very much Fred.

I only share the playlist I made of this for ease of getting all the videos to you, but check out Rich Thompson's tornado forecasting series from several years back. In the model episode, he talks about the various parameterizations and biases of the non-CAM models. The whole series sheds a LOT of light on things.

 

[Kds86z]

The fact that that the first words from an SPC forecaster is "Oh no" is downright terrifying to me.

Wow.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I only share the playlist I made of this for ease of getting all the videos to you, but check out Rich Thompson's tornado forecasting series from several years back. In the model episode, he talks about the various parameterizations and biases of the non-CAM models. The whole series sheds a LOT of light on things.

It looks like that particular episode is #8 in the series, next to last.

 

[Evan]

From north Texas all the way up to southern Nebraska, supercells have the possibility of producing tornadoes.

Obviously though Oklahoma and southern Kansas are in the more dire straights. Would expect an expansion of the moderate risk and dare I say an upgrade to the forbidden pink.
View attachment 27710

I tend to think a high risk is pretty likely at this point. Guess we'll see in a few hours.

 

[Fred Gossage]

00z 12k NAM is doing something similar again. It convects a long-track supercell through central Oklahoma whose pressure perturbation is strong enough for the model to depict a 993mb low in the mesocyclone at 12-kilometer model grid resolution. The signal for this is clear as day.

 

[Maxis_s]

View attachment 27713 View attachment 27714
00z 12k NAM is doing something similar again. It convects a long-track supercell through central Oklahoma whose pressure perturbation is strong enough for the model to depict a 993mb low in the mesocyclone at 12-kilometer model grid resolution. The signal for this is clear as day.

What...

 

[TH2002]

Yikes, this event hasn't even started yet and I already can't keep up with this thread...

 

[Maxis_s]

 

[TornadoFan]

Jesus, I had my headphones on.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[Maxis_s]

Never have I seen all 3 trending, let alone without an event even going on right now.

 

[TH2002]

Would have been more fitting if I had been listening to Weird Al the moment I saw your tweet. Unfortunately not. I was earlier, but am listening to "Auferstanden aus Ruinen" at this moment...

 

[TornadoFan]

View attachment 27716

This was exactly my reaction.

 

[warneagle]

Would have been more fitting if I had been listening to Weird Al the moment I saw your tweet. Unfortunately not. I was earlier, but am listening to "Auferstanden aus Ruinen" at this moment...

As someone who used to live in the former East Germany, I have to ask

Why

 

[brianc33710]

There's our 45% risk confirmed.

Let the SPC issue the 30% 1st lol.

 

[Maxis_s]

Let the SPC issue the 30% 1st lol.

Yeah I'm joking. They won't do it immediately if they do want to put out a 45% risk.