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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

I'm most of the time glad that SPC doesn't listen to all the complaining about the risk categories. However, I know they're working on new things to help the viewers and I'm excited to see what lies ahead. They do a fantastic job. They've said before that they understand about the word "Enhanced" causing issues and that they're working on that.
 
Brice W said:
If thisi s what models are showing, shouldn’t they extend the MDT more south?
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I think Northern TX would rather stay in the margerine than be upgraded in risk.
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rushdude said:
I think Northern TX would rather stay in the margerine than be upgraded in risk.
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Saaaaame. We just got some nasty storms over here today and I'd prefer not to have a repeat. Scary how quickly the atmosphere is being modeled to recover per the newest HRRR run.
 
Fred Gossage said:
This still isn't a guarantee it's gonna nuts, but I've honestly been thinking that this event is similar to that one... except this one has more perpendicular deep-layer shear and less VBV (if any at all) in the profiles.
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Ahhhhhh, I know what day this is, you just have to Identify one cell. And a few others.
 
Fred Gossage said:
This still isn't a guarantee it's gonna nuts, but I've honestly been thinking that this event is similar to that one... except this one has more perpendicular deep-layer shear and less VBV (if any at all) in the profiles.
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That is very scary to think about. The ceiling on this looks really bad.
 
From north Texas all the way up to southern Nebraska, supercells have the possibility of producing tornadoes.

Obviously though Oklahoma and southern Kansas are in the more dire straights. Would expect an expansion of the moderate risk and dare I say an upgrade to the forbidden pink.
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jiharris0220 said:
From north Texas all the way up to southern Nebraska, supercells have the possibility of producing tornadoes.

Obviously though Oklahoma and southern Kansas are in the more dire straights. Would expect an expansion of the moderate risk and dare I say an upgrade to the forbidden pink.
View attachment 27710
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Again, this is just one round of cells.
Lyons said that multiple rounds are possible, and HRRR does show an extra cell forming in KS behind the first round, which likely indicates a possible/likely second round.
 
jiharris0220 said:
While the hrrr run is scary, I won’t be 100% convinced until all other cams show the same thing. So this will be interesting to see the whole slew.
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I'm just going to say this and leave it where it is. I haven't been able to use the WRFs for more than 3-6 hours out past initialization all week for how they have repeatedly fallen on their face. Take that for however you will. BUT, if we see them uptrend in coverage even just a little, I think that's a clear signal. One clear signal to me this afternoon was the 12k NAM initiating a sustained supercell in that EML environment when its parameterization is explicitly designed to not convect at all in the presence of dry mid-level air. That's what causes it to often be too blank looking compared to reality in significant tornado situations... because what do those have overtop the warm sector? Mid-level dry air with an EML. The fact that it still popped a long-track supercell despite that got my attention.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I'm just going to say this and leave it where it is. I haven't been able to use the WRFs for more than 3-6 hours out past initialization all week for how they have repeatedly fallen on their face. Take that for however you will. BUT, if we see them uptrend in coverage even just a little, I think that's a clear signal. One clear signal to me this afternoon was the 12k NAM initiating a sustained supercell in that EML environment when its parameterization is explicitly designed to not convect at all in the presence of dry mid-level air. That's what causes it to often be too blank looking compared to reality in significant tornado situations... because what do those have overtop the warm sector? Mid-level dry air with an EML. The fact that it still popped a long-track supercell despite that got my attention.
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“12k NAM initiating a sustained supercell in that EML environment when its parameterization is explicitly designed to not convect at all in the presence of dry mid-level air”

Well now I know why the nam does so poorly with dry lines and high EML environments, thank you very much Fred.
 
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