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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

Hours 12+ HRRR gets a little wonky with the L pressure placement.

Is this an error or on purpose or is there reason for this to jump around this much comparatively?

1736480612939.gif
 
850mb forecast for 3Z (40 min ago)
1736480563661.png

9Z

1736480652257.png


Interesting, I thought.

Then at 21Z tomorrow, the real blowtorch:

1736480982752.png
 
JPWX said:
Indeed. By the looks, it's trended cooler.
Click to expand...
That's the same forecast, different hours. GFS. So a 850 temp crash, then the warm nose later in the day. Supports HRR's snow, ZR. rain solution I'd say.
 
brianc33710 said:
So the warm nose comes later now?
Click to expand...
21Zulu, or 4pm tomorrow is what the gfs thinks for the warm nose, yes. Was expected. A warm nose happening now at 850 is what the first image shows, then a drop at 9Z, or about 3AM, which likely coincides with the arrival of heavy precip, which will lead to cooling of the column. Also helps explain our surface temps - warm air aloft, and not a lot of wind to transport more dry air in, because the surface low isn't all that strong.
 
Allegedly, there's snow over E AL and W GA, but I'm doubtful it's reaching the ground.
1736481887685.png
 
Blountwolf said:
21Zulu, or 4pm tomorrow is what the gfs thinks for the warm nose, yes. Was expected. A warm nose happening now at 850 is what the first image shows, then a drop at 9Z, or about 3AM, which likely coincides with the arrival of heavy precip, which will lead to cooling of the column. Also helps explain our surface temps - warm air aloft, and not a lot of wind to transport more dry air in, because the surface low isn't all that strong.
Click to expand...
Seems like that puts central AL/Bham area in a pretty good spot then. Am I seeing that right?
 
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