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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

PopPop said:
Seems like that puts central AL/Bham area in a pretty good spot then. Am I seeing that right?
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Well, it means the temperatures in the 850mb level (about 5k feet up, approx) at 3am get really cold, which would more likely support frozen precip. Again, it shows that happening at 3am. Then in the afternoon at 4pm (21Z), it shows that layer very warm again (warm nose) implying it will be all rain at that point.
 
IMG_7960.jpeg

really got my hopes up when the temp started to crash at sunset. it is now up over 2 degrees since 6pm.

will this even *start* as a wintry mix? i’m becoming skeptical.
 
Vertical said:
So are we going to get 12 hours of frozen precip in central Alabama now? Am I understanding that correctly?
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If your along I20 or north it looks like you may have sleet or mix during the day until about midday. Most will probably come as freezing rain.
 
i figured these virga returns would start to drop my temperature. so far, nada.

temps are still above freezing statewide except a couple spots right up on the TN line.

i think at this point we can safely dismiss any notion that the models were too warm.

IMG_7961.jpeg
 
PopPop said:
Seems like that puts central AL/Bham area in a pretty good spot then. Am I seeing that right?
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Yes, for it to START as frozen about 3am. Snow, sleet - what that shows is the layer at 5000ft supporting that much better than it is now over North Central Alabama in general, yes. Won't mean much for our snow accumulation chances I'm afraid - this does look like it is going to change over to rain during the day, according to almost all the models at this point. By tomorrow afternoon, the models forecast there to be little or no snow depth left in central AL. GFS has a little left over, so there is some hope, but not much, IMO. I wish I could say otherwise, and I hope we all wake up to a surprise, but temper your expectations on this one I'm afraid.
 
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Here's hoping we get some big surprises, but if we get much if any that lasts, I'll be very surprised. Best case scenario for me would be it drop a few quick inches for a few hours to play in before it QUICKLY transitions to all (not freezing) rain and washes it away.
 
It’s raining here (Buhl, tiny town in Tuscaloosa county). May be a little sleet. I can’t tell. It does sound different than normal rain. I sound dumb haha.
 
The temps aren't dropping at all. Haleyville has changed from 34/14 & light rain at 11 pm hourly to 32/17 & snow starting 11:15. That's some good news. But Bham is still 38. I really thought at least 35 by now given how low the dp is.
 
brianc33710 said:
The temps aren't dropping at all. Haleyville has changed from 34/14 & light rain at 11 pm hourly to 32/17 & snow starting 11:15. That's some good news. But Bham is still 38. I really thought at least 35 by now given how low the dp is.
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A stronger layer of warm air aloft can offset surface cooling. The low dewpoint would create cooling in heavy precipitation in to it, but the air aloft - the warm nose - is winning the temperature battle until the precipitation arrives.
 
Now if we can get some really heavy bands into those low dewpoints all at once, it will cool the whole column and go over to snow. That report out of Haleyville is a good sign. You can see it happen in the reports - the rain into the low-dewpoint air cools the column and it switches over to snow:

1736488422200.png

Now not to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency bubbles, but that may be an automated station making an assumption about what the precip type is, but it certainly shows evap cooling in progress under the heavier returns.
 
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