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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

Wondering if BMX might drop the WSW for central areas honestly at this point. Maybe just WWA criteria?? Not trying to be a downer here, but this is looking more and more like a non-event for central areas and maybe even further north based on temps and radar precipitation depiction....
 
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MikeP said:
Wondering if BMX might drop the WSW for central areas honestly at this point. Maybe just WWA criteria. Not trying to be a downer here, but this is looking more and more like a non-event for central areas and maybe even further north based on temps and radar precipitation depiction....
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Dewpoints are still low with wet bulbs still well below 32. I wouldn't fully throw in the towel yet. We're not far above 32. Haleyville, the closest to the event, is now 34/16. They were 34/14 at 7.
 
brianc33710 said:
Dewpoints are still low with wet bulbs still well below 32. I wouldn't fully throw in the towel yet. We're not far above 32. Haleyville, the closest to the event, is now 34/16. They were 34/14 at
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brianc33710 said:
Dewpoints are still low with wet bulbs still well below 32. I wouldn't fully throw in the towel yet. We're not far above 32. Haleyville, the closest to the event, is now 34/16. They were 34/14 at 7.
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No I get it, but looking back west into MS and seeing how far north those liquid returns are doesn't bode well for frozen lovers downstream or points to the east....
 
What I sent to my county EMA and other officials this evening:

Good Evening!

What You Need To Know:
  • Winter Storm Warning in effect for Monroe County and all of North MS from now until midnight Saturday.
  • Total Snow/Sleet Accumulations: 2 inches
  • Ice Accumulations: One tenth of an inch
  • Timeframe: 10pm tonight thru 4pm tomorrow. (There is potential for a wintry mix and/or snow showers as early as 8pm)
  • Impacts: Significant to Major travel issues, scattered to potentially widespread power outages (due to this being a heavy wet snow), and black ice issues (as what doesn't melt will refreeze)
IMPORTANT: I do NOT expect significant ice accumulations!

I won't get into the meteorological details, but snow for Monroe County could be a literal on the fence type deal.

General Simple Meteorological Synopsis: A Gulf low is beginning to take shape off the coast of Texas. This is very similar to what occurred during the January 2011 snowstorm (6 inches for Northern Monroe) and the February 2015 snowstorm (8 inches for Northern Monroe). In both cases, you had a Gulf low in the same vicinity as this current one. All of Monroe County got snow in both 2011 and 2015. Northern areas of the county got more.

Scenario #1:

Gulf low tracks further south over the Gulf leading to more snow for Monroe County.

Scenario #2:

Gulf low tracks further north (just inland from the Gulf) leading to a wintry mess of snow, freezing rain, rain, and sleet. This would decrease our snow, but increase our risk of freezing rain/sleet.

I'm favoring the first scenario because it has more forecast models that have been very consistent with more snow for Monroe County and North MS in general. More on the snowfall expectations below.

How much snow?

That's the biggest question and one that I really don't know. However, I'm giving it my best shot.

The latest forecast models are hinting at the highest amounts (5+) across Northern Monroe County with lower amounts (4 or less) across Southern Monroe County.

Total Snow For Monroe County:

Low End Range: 1-3 inches

Mid Range: 4-6 inches

High End Range: 7-9 inches (locally 9+)

Again, I want to emphasize that towns/cities like Aberdeen could see 1 inch while Amory could see 5 inches while Smithville could see 8 inches. That's how wide ranging these totals could end up being and there's going to be a tight snow gradient.

Stay safe and aware everyone!

Meteorologist Johnny Parker
 
On Wundermap are there are 3 reporting stations within 1 mile of my house.
Closest station reports 33
Next closest reports 34
The other reports 31

Think I'll go with 31. :D

Also, I'm seeing some returns of what I assume is grauple in a line from South of Hamilton to South of Cullman. I haven't seen any reports of anything reaching the ground.
 
I'm kinda starting to doubt the wedge will be overcome during the day tommrow. I'f I'm a betting man I think my area will not get above freezing tommorow. Considering I'm on the foothills of the Appalachians. Hrrr is a bit too warm imo.
 
The radar return I mentioned in my previous post. Gotta be virga, right?
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm kinda starting to doubt the wedge will be overcome during the day tommrow. I'f I'm a betting man I think my area will not get above freezing tommorow. Considering I'm on the foothills of the Appalachians. Hrrr is a bit too warm imo.
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HRRR's FR accumulation looks off, but its snow amounts seem about right, whereas the NAM has aggressive FR accumulation but weirdly puny snow accumulation for much of AL and GA.
 
Clancy said:
HRRR's FR accumulation looks off, but its snow amounts seem about right, whereas the NAM has aggressive FR accumulation but weirdly puny snow accumulation for much of AL and GA.
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That's what I'm saying. It's good to have consistency, but the NAM/Canadian have been too consistent with the freezing rain. I mean you would have expected both to waver in that idea at some point.
 
JPWX said:
That's what I'm saying. It's good to have consistency, but the NAM/Canadian have been too consistent with the freezing rain. I mean you would have expected both to waver in that idea at some point.
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Yeah, not trusting either solution in a meaningful way. Really showing off how fickle forecasting winter storms are, especially when I think about it in comparison to severe.
 
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