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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

The last 5 min update has the Bham airport at 37/14. I don't doubt surrounding areas have already dropped lower. Pell City is 30 & Gadsden is 29.
 
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It’s 36 according to my old outside thermometer in Tuscaloosa. Well out in the boonies on the left side of Tuscaloosa.
I predict just cold rain or a horrid ice situation. It isn’t usually a middle ground.
 
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EST Thu Jan 09 2025

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092200Z - 100400Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming convection may briefly train along portions of the Upper Texas coast this evening. Rainfall rates around 1.5"/hr are possible in urbanized communities and could lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION...Deepening low pressure along the Texas coast is located beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a robust ~160kt 250mb jet streak over the Middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Farther west, an anomalous upper trough over northern Mexico contains 500mb heights as low as the 1st climatological percentile according the NAEFS. Onshore flow will increase at low levels this evening as high pressure over the Ohio Valley and the deepening surface low along the Texas Coast tighten the surface pressure gradient. In fact, southerly 850mb winds of 40-50kts around 00Z this evening are above the 99.5 climatological percentile per NAEFS. These atmospheric parameters are playing a role in the development of an IVT surpassing 1,000 kg/m/s, which are values above the maximum observed IVT levels in the CFSR database per NAEFS.

As the low-level wind field strengthens, surface-925mb FGEN will also strengthen as low-level winds draw PWs up to 1.75" ahead of the storm. Rainfall rates will increase in intensity this evening to the north of the warm front, as well as the western flank of the storm's circulation. Area averaged HRRR soundings from the Houston metroplex to Galveston show >98% saturated soundings from the surface to 300mb and warm cloud layers as deep as 12,000ft. This supports favorable warm rainfall processes, but the one big ingredient that is lacking is instability. Moisture advection and synoptic-to-mesoscale forcing alone would support hourly rainfall rates of 1"/hr rainfall rates, but the HRRR shows as much as 250 J/kg of MUCAPE present along the Upper Texas coast. It is here where hourly rainfall rates may approach 1.5"/hr with low chances (5-10% via the 12Z HREF) for rainfall rates of >2"/hr.

NASA SPoRT-LIS in the sfc-10cm and sfc-40cm soil depths are running drier than normal with some locations in moderate drought according to the latest drought monitor. This atmospheric setup is one where most of the observed rainfall will be more beneficial than harmful. That said, locally excessive rainfall rates may lead to localized flash flooding tonight in areas that feature a greater concentration of non-permeable surfaces. Any minor flooding or ponding may also be harder to identify for motorists with the heaviest rainfall rates arriving after sundown.

Mullinax
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Haven't really been keeping up with this today, is it pretty much looking like a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency for central AL at this point? Snow followed by cold rain seems like a waste.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I kinda hope it does rise at this point, because all we are doing is getting the ground freezing fast for the incoming sleet and rain. I think snow is out of the question for the i20 corridor. We are just gunna be a icy mess I'm afraid.
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Just took the doggo out…My front yard is hard as a rock…Already frozen…NE Jefferson County
 
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