I am a bit surprised to see this View attachment 1529
Looks like BMX isn't quite as far north and east with the Enhanced Risk:
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I am a bit surprised to see this View attachment 1529
I agree, while there could be some spinups in North/Central AL, I think slight risk would handle it just fine.The HRRR doesn’t have as much of a VBV issue in the Red River Valley this evening as the NAM does. The HRRR solution could support some discrete supercells at least for a while (which shows up on simulated reflectivity) and could give more of a tornado threat than some of the other models have indicated. If that’s accurate, it could outperform that 5% risk a bit. Still think the best chance of any significant tornadoes is in southern MS and southeastern LA tomorrow though.
I still think the line will be potent in West Alabama to warrant an enhanced. It could result in several wind reports if it holds together. I think it'll fall apart in East Alabama with most of the intensity remaining in South AL.I agree, while there could be some spinups in North/Central AL, I think slight risk would handle it just fine.
What i dont understand is SPC has tuscaloosa hatched. Now that has me scratching my head. I would shunt the hatched area further south where there is potential for greater instability. Personally I would take the enhanced and trim it back to about Demopolis/sw.I am a bit surprised to see this View attachment 1529
This is aging quite wellI know we're still 3 days out, but I really am not seeing a significant tornado threat across Dixie Thursday. Pretty substantial damaging wind risk, but it seems way too messy with too many caveats for a significant tornado threat to materialize across MS/AL/LA. Maybe a decent QLCS tornado threat however. Now that I have said this, watch an outbreak occur.
This makes a lot more sense to me. Typically in most QLCS scenarios, slight risk handles it just fine. the spinups tend to be brief, very transient...just like we saw this past Sunday morning as the line moved throughLooks like BMX isn't quite as far north and east with the Enhanced Risk:
Here we go again.Looks like BMX isn't quite as far north and east with the Enhanced Risk:
I agree. I know this past weekend there were a lot of non-weather people who just wrote off the whole event because they were seeing up to three different risk maps at one point.Man, the inconsistencies in threat areas seem to be getting more inconsistent. SPC has their enhanced risk area much further north than BMX. Spann is talking about the biggest threat being over south AL. I can see where someone who is not as tuned into weather as we are gets confused.
Here we go again.
I agree. I know this past weekend there were a lot of non-weather people who just wrote off the whole event because they were seeing up to three different risk maps at one point.
The hot takes on the board these the past event and now this one are pretty awful.This is aging quite well
To be fair, that point kinda does stand still despite there's a greater probability for a significant tornado threat. Messiness can mess up the siggy threat and lead straight to a QLCS threat still. Even with the HRRR showing discrete cells ahead of the line, we know what it showed Saturday that didn't pan out.The hot takes on the board these the past event and now this one are pretty awful.
I was referring to the overall continual downplaying of last system which produced 2 EF-3s and 13 EF-2 with 63 and counting tornadoes. And several of those EF-2 falling just next door in Mississippi.To be fair, that point kinda does stand still despite there's a greater probability for a significant tornado threat. Messiness can mess up the siggy threat and lead straight to a QLCS threat still. Even with the HRRR showing discrete cells ahead of the line, we know what it showed Saturday that didn't pan out.
It usually does.I think it'll fall apart in East Alabama .
Understood thought you were referring to my postI was referring to the overall continual downplaying of last system which produced 2 EF-3s and 13 EF-2 with 63 and counting tornadoes. And several of those EF-2 falling just next door in Mississippi.