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Severe WX Wednesday/Thursday/Friday April 17th-19th Severe Threat

South AL Wx

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I am a bit surprised to see this View attachment 1529

Looks like BMX isn't quite as far north and east with the Enhanced Risk:

57368783_2189391064433631_5802592656181690368_n.png
 

warneagle

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The HRRR doesn’t have as much of a VBV issue in the Red River Valley this evening as the NAM does. The HRRR solution could support some discrete supercells at least for a while (which shows up on simulated reflectivity) and could give more of a tornado threat than some of the other models have indicated. If that’s accurate, it could outperform that 5% risk a bit. Still think the best chance of any significant tornadoes is in southern MS and southeastern LA tomorrow though.
 

Richardjacks

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The HRRR doesn’t have as much of a VBV issue in the Red River Valley this evening as the NAM does. The HRRR solution could support some discrete supercells at least for a while (which shows up on simulated reflectivity) and could give more of a tornado threat than some of the other models have indicated. If that’s accurate, it could outperform that 5% risk a bit. Still think the best chance of any significant tornadoes is in southern MS and southeastern LA tomorrow though.
I agree, while there could be some spinups in North/Central AL, I think slight risk would handle it just fine.
 

mattdanielwx

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I agree, while there could be some spinups in North/Central AL, I think slight risk would handle it just fine.
I still think the line will be potent in West Alabama to warrant an enhanced. It could result in several wind reports if it holds together. I think it'll fall apart in East Alabama with most of the intensity remaining in South AL.
 

MattPetrulli

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I know we're still 3 days out, but I really am not seeing a significant tornado threat across Dixie Thursday. Pretty substantial damaging wind risk, but it seems way too messy with too many caveats for a significant tornado threat to materialize across MS/AL/LA. Maybe a decent QLCS tornado threat however. Now that I have said this, watch an outbreak occur.
This is aging quite well
 

MattPetrulli

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Judging off NAM/HRRR, seems like messiness will be a huge issue once again. That may prohibit a more intense event, but QLCS tors will probably be very common along with maybe a few siggy tors if discrete cells get going ahead of the line.

Dynamics aren't super impressive imo, but would like to see a tad more instability be present in the warm sector.
 

AL_ham_op

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Looks like BMX isn't quite as far north and east with the Enhanced Risk:
Here we go again.

Man, the inconsistencies in threat areas seem to be getting more inconsistent. SPC has their enhanced risk area much further north than BMX. Spann is talking about the biggest threat being over south AL. I can see where someone who is not as tuned into weather as we are gets confused.
I agree. I know this past weekend there were a lot of non-weather people who just wrote off the whole event because they were seeing up to three different risk maps at one point.
 

JayF

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Here we go again.


I agree. I know this past weekend there were a lot of non-weather people who just wrote off the whole event because they were seeing up to three different risk maps at one point.

And the bad thing about that is one of these days, they are going to write off the event and it is going to end up being one they should have been attentive to.
 

MattPetrulli

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The hot takes on the board these the past event and now this one are pretty awful.
To be fair, that point kinda does stand still despite there's a greater probability for a significant tornado threat. Messiness can mess up the siggy threat and lead straight to a QLCS threat still. Even with the HRRR showing discrete cells ahead of the line, we know what it showed Saturday that didn't pan out.
 

Austin Dawg

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We are setting up nicely for a major hail event here in south central Texas. When we have them with a system like this we can get some very serious hailers. The last one gave everyone in the neighborhood got a new roof.
 

Kory

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To be fair, that point kinda does stand still despite there's a greater probability for a significant tornado threat. Messiness can mess up the siggy threat and lead straight to a QLCS threat still. Even with the HRRR showing discrete cells ahead of the line, we know what it showed Saturday that didn't pan out.
I was referring to the overall continual downplaying of last system which produced 2 EF-3s and 13 EF-2 with 63 and counting tornadoes. And several of those EF-2 falling just next door in Mississippi.
 

Kory

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Also, my whole take on the SPC vs local NWS offices. The local office is there and should be the primary source of info for the public. The SPC products were originally intended for use primarily by mets to incorporate in their forecast, but has now become the primary source for the public. Folks, your NWS office knows best about your local area. The mets forecast there and are aware of local features that may enhance/reduce threat. The push toward centralization is, in my opinion, bad for the science and the products produced. Obviously, it would be nice for the SPC products and NWS local office products to match, but in 8/10 cases, the broad brushed outlook by the SPC needs more detail at the local level...hence why BMX has different outlooks.
 
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