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Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

What the heck is this forming behind Florence?


Behind Florence.png
 
JayF said:
What the heck is this forming behind Florence?


View attachment 870
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From the NHC TWO:

3. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
 
How sad. I hope there aren’t any children there.
 

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLORENCE'S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 mb...27.99 inches
 
Can't see Twitter while at work (blocked) Is Reed Timmer still planning on being there?
 
The ferries across North Carolina have mostly all stopped now. There are still around 200 people on Ocracoke Island, NC who decided to stay, and no emergency responders can access the island until after the storm, this could be ugly given the storm surge.
 
That southwest shear and some drier air have taken a bit of a toll on Florence today. Won't really affect the flooding potential, but hopefully the shear/dry air can continue to give it fits.
 
Microwave pass shows Florence's core is beginning to degrade. Constant ERC and dry air have really capped the potential on this. I think this continues weakening to landfall....which is good news but the large wind field will continue to provide a large surge threat.
 
I hope so. The window is quickly closing on her ability to get it back together. Ultimately a very good thing. The models have done a poor job with estimating her future strength. I don't think any of them picked up on the current weakening trend. That said, I'm still worried about the potential interaction with the gulf stream. Hopefully her core continues to be disrupted and that prevents any potential re-strengthening.

Not even going to discuss her potential landfall locations. I still don't think we have a good handle on that, and any additional weakening (or strengthening) is going to lead to changes in her later path. Also, still curious to see how strong the ridge ends up being.

There's a good trend so far. Obviously the flooding won't be mitigated much. And, we all know that even a weakening large hurricane brings very deadly storm surge.
 
Last NOAA flight of the day said they didn't see any real evidence of disruptions to her core this afternoon from their observations. Her approach to the gulf stream was also mentioned as she gets closer to shore. To your point Evan....
 
found this amusing. Hope he makes it in time

 
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