Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)

[TornadoFan]

From the MD discussing the tornado watch:

Wind fields, which are already quite strong, are expected to further
strengthen as the system approaches. Current mesoanalysis estimates
the 0-6 km shear is already 70 kt, with forecast soundings
suggesting an increase to 85-90 kt is anticipated by 00Z. Forecast
hodographs also show robust low veering with height, supported by
50-60 kt flow around 1 km. Forecast soundings show surface to 500 m
storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across the eastern TX and
OK Panhandles at 00Z.

 

[UK_EF4]

Any QLCS or embedded supercellular tornadoes are likely to be long tracked compared to usual QLCS tors, given just how fast the line is moving - in a similar sense to Dec 15th 2021. But I am now very concerned we could see an outbreak of strong-intense tornadoes across Oklahoma today given just how favourable the low level shear and the fact we still have 500-1000j/kg of CAPE in places coinciding with strong shear. Even without tornadoes, we are probably going to see a massive damaging wind threat. Could end up being pretty bad.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

When's this event start, havent kept track, I'll probably tune in on my radarscope and see how things go

 

[UK_EF4]

When's this event start, havent kept track, I'll probably tune in on my radarscope and see how things go

Im in UK time lol but around 22-00z things should start which is in 1-3 hours

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol good gosh

 

[TornadoFan]

2000Z HRRR.

 

[Austin Dawg]

When's this event start, havent kept track, I'll probably tune in on my radarscope and see how things go

Looks like storms are firing northwest of Amarillo. I'm not sure if this is where it's going to begin, but there are a few severe warned cells in that area. If you're like me to give you a chance to get your RadarScope out and get it set up.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

New nadocast adds small 15% sig contour. Signficantly expands the 10% contour.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like from what I've been reading these cells have a few hours of being semi discrete with a maximized tornado threat.. it'll be a interesting few hours.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looks like storms are firing northwest of Amarillo. I'm not sure if this is where it's going to begin, but there are a few severe warned cells in that area. If you're like me to give you a chance to get your RadarScope out and get it set up.

Oh wow, it's about to kick off then that's the main initiator, seems a bit earlier than forecasted

 

[warneagle]

2000Z HRRR.

Yeahhhh that's gonna be a problem.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief! No lack of storm view hahahaha

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's interesting the CAMS have all been showing very strong capping where the obscene low-level shear is...HRRR also has the UH streaks displaced to the north of where the favorable parameters are. Hard to pull a good near-storm sounding that's not convectively contaminated.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It's interesting the CAMS have all been showing very strong capping where the obscene low-level shear is...HRRR also has the UH streaks displaced to the north of where the favorable parameters are. Hard to pull a good near-storm sounding that's not convectively contaminated.

Rap is your best bet for non contained close event soundings, or checking the SPC meso analysis to see what things look like.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Roswell NM, non thunderstorm winds sustained 58mph gusts 75mph

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[SmokeEater]

Watch out, winds to 100 and a couple intense tornadoes likely.

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 100
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES AND SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AS
THEY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[southmdwatcher]

Widespread wind gusts and scattered gusts to 100 mph likely

 

[Tennie]

Watch out, winds to 100 and a couple intense tornadoes likely.

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND EASTERN PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 100
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES AND SPREAD RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AS
THEY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

60/40 tornado probs on that watch.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

About to start brewing me some java. We may see a show, potentially historic derecho, possibly up there with the great Midwest derecho in the early 2010s.