Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)

[tennessee storm chaser]

Cheeseland May get his wish , get a good chase day toward his neck of woods … lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Cheeseland May get his wish , get a good chase day toward his neck of woods … lol

Could end up being the first high risk day of the year

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cheeseland May get his wish , get a good chase day toward his neck of woods … lol

Lol, this one is nowhere near me.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Lol, this one is nowhere near me.

Sure it’s south of you … but is closer lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sure it’s south of you … but is closer lol

It's closer to you man than it is cheese lol. I think cheese is in Wisconsin

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's closer to you man than it is cheese lol. I think cheese is in Wisconsin

Yep.

Need a setup like Winterset last year...or 2/28/17.

 

[KevinH]

Yep.

Need a setup like Winterset last year...or 2/28/17.

Just wait… Lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yep.

Need a setup like Winterset last year...or 2/28/17.

It'll be a few months before you have your chance lol,at least climatology wise. Usually the Midwest or upper great plains have more events closer to may or June I think if Im not mistaken.

Unless there's a major anomaly event lol

 

[Taylor Campbell]

EURO ensembles with 90th percentile CAPE of 500j/kg and the new GFS has pushed that number a bit over 1000j/kg for Selma, AL.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Is this KS, OK, and TX?

 

[KevinH]

Is this KS, OK, and TX?

Yes

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I think there will be decent instability in areas primarily south of I-20 in AL/GA on Monday, but curious about the intensity of the low-level shear. The EURO/GEM do not look as pronounced as the other models.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC with one of the longest discussions they've probably ever had to write in February except maybe for Super Tuesday, 2008.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230858
SPC AC 230858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For Sunday/D4, models continue to indicate the possibility of
significant severe potential over parts of northwest TX, OK, and
southern KS as a strong shortwave trough emerges into the southern
High Plains Sunday/D4 afternoon. Low pressure is forecast to deepen
through the period, moving from eastern CO into western KS during
the day, and into northern MO by Monday/D5 morning. Model trends
overall appear a bit faster with the wave, and farther south with
the surface low.

Wind fields will become very strong Sunday/D4 afternoon and night
across the Plains as low-level moisture spreads north. Indications
are that MLCAPE of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg will be possible ahead
of the dryline/cold front, from northwest TX into southern KS as the
low-level jet strengthens to 50 kt by late afternoon. Speeds around
this level may exceed 70 kt by evening, while at the same time,
strong veering with the cold front enhances convergence.

The most likely scenario appears to be for a few supercells
initially across western parts of the risk area, from the TX
Panhandle and northwest TX into western OK, with large hail and
tornado risk in proximity to steeper low-level lapse rates. A rapid
transition to linear mode is expected as the system pushes
east/northeast across OK and KS, with both damaging winds and QLCS
tornado risk given 0-3 km shear over 50 kt and effective SRH over
300 m2/s2. Other severe storms along the cold front will be possible
farther south into TX which is south of the stronger large-scale
ascent. Still, the strong cold front and sufficient instability may
counteract capping concerns to produce areas of damaging wind
potential. Last, lack of instability will be the main factor across
northern areas toward Kansas City, but a conditional severe risk may
develop there as well should sufficient SBCAPE develop.

On Monday/D5, the system is forecast to continue rapidly east across
the OH Valley, with the low occluding as it moves toward Lower MI.
MUCAPE values are only averaging 50-100 J/kg per latest model
guidance, and this will mitigate severe potential. Given 50 kt winds
just off the surface, a conditional risk of at least isolated
damaging gusts may develop on Monday/D5, and model trends will
continue to be monitored.

For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, models indicate
another large trough developing over the West late in the period,
with moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley
Wednesday/D7 into Thursday/D8. This may setup another severe weather
event from TX into the Southeast Thursday/D8 and beyond, but
predictability is low.

..Jewell.. 02/23/2023

 

[KevinH]

The risk areas have shifted AND expanded to include parts of SW MO and NW AR.

 

[Brice]

And looks who’s smack dab in the middle when there’s a southern plain’s significant system…. OKC

 

[Clancy]

Southern eyes are mostly on the March threat but models have been showing an at least marginally conducive environment for severe storms on 2/27 over AL/MS/GA.

 

[Penitentes]

Trey's analysis as things stand today.

 

[KevinH]

Southern eyes are mostly on the March threat but models have been showing an at least marginally conducive environment for severe storms on 2/27 over AL/MS/GA.
View attachment 18095

If I am reading the Z time right, this is valid for 1pm ET 2/27??? I wonder why THIS did not get the SPCs attention in their D4-8 outlook this morning??!??


I hope I don’t have to end up adding THIS area to this thread’s title :/ We’ll see

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Mods (@WesL @StormStalker @KoD , can we please get this thread pinned at the top. This is going to be a very active subject. Looks like we are on the way to a moderate risk or higher for the current 30% risk area. Thank you.