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Svr Wx threat March 24-26th 2024

Meanwhile the High Wind Watch currently for North MS is the first one issued in the NWS Memphis CWA since December 2009
 

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SPC maintains slight risk for Monday , still don’t think winds are backed enough for a few discrete cells out ahead of the trough . Intense qlcs looks more favorable to me
 
Today may sneak up on people, multiple chasers including Trey are saying the possibilities of a strong tornado or two are going up on the dryline bulge in W OK. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC goes with a 10 hatched at the next update.

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My area is now borderline enhanced risk. Last time I was in enhanced risk was Feb 11 which underachieved. Overall it has been quiet lately here in central LA (last tornadoes in the area were on Nov 20 - a number of weak tornadoes that day).

This morning's HRRR run didn't look overly impressive - looks messy in my area with squall line intensifying as it crosses the MS River.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Mosier outlined an enhanced (10% hatch) tornado risk in the newest Day 2.

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The forecast hodographs are nasty in that area. Fortunately right now mode looks to be a QLCS so long-track violent tornadoes do not appear likely, but with shear like this even a QLCS could certainly be capable of producing several strong tornadoes. SPC's latest discussion also does hint at the possibility of quasi-discrete supercellular elements forming out of the line; such as what happened in the early morning of November 6, 2005 resulting in the deadly Evansville, IN F3. Strong low-level shear can do weird things sometimes.
 

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CheeselandSkies said:
The forecast hodographs are nasty in that area. Fortunately right now mode looks to be a QLCS so long-track violent tornadoes do not appear likely, but with shear like this even a QLCS could certainly be capable of producing several strong tornadoes. SPC's latest discussion also does hint at the possibility of quasi-discrete supercellular elements forming out of the line; such as what happened in the early morning of November 6, 2005 resulting in the deadly Evansville, IN F3. Strong low-level shear can do weird things sometimes.
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Plus mosier broyles get tad over zealous … still seeing a qlcs my eyes
 
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