Svr Wx threat March 24-26th 2024

[JPWX]

Meanwhile the High Wind Watch currently for North MS is the first one issued in the NWS Memphis CWA since December 2009

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC maintains slight risk for Monday , still don’t think winds are backed enough for a few discrete cells out ahead of the trough . Intense qlcs looks more favorable to me

 

[SmokeEater]

Today may sneak up on people, multiple chasers including Trey are saying the possibilities of a strong tornado or two are going up on the dryline bulge in W OK. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC goes with a 10 hatched at the next update.

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[SmokeEater]

SPC maintains slight risk for Monday , still don’t think winds are backed enough for a few discrete cells out ahead of the trough . Intense qlcs looks more favorable to me

All of them are saying guaranteed supercells also.

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[TornadoFan]

New video from Trey about today's and tomorrow's threats.

 

[SmokeEater]

5% tor stays, enhanced upgrade for hail.

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[Taylor Campbell]

Mosier outlined an enhanced (10% hatch) tornado risk in the newest Day 2.

 

[Rapideswx]

My area is now borderline enhanced risk. Last time I was in enhanced risk was Feb 11 which underachieved. Overall it has been quiet lately here in central LA (last tornadoes in the area were on Nov 20 - a number of weak tornadoes that day).

This morning's HRRR run didn't look overly impressive - looks messy in my area with squall line intensifying as it crosses the MS River.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Mosier outlined an enhanced (10% hatch) tornado risk in the newest Day 2.

View attachment 24436

The forecast hodographs are nasty in that area. Fortunately right now mode looks to be a QLCS so long-track violent tornadoes do not appear likely, but with shear like this even a QLCS could certainly be capable of producing several strong tornadoes. SPC's latest discussion also does hint at the possibility of quasi-discrete supercellular elements forming out of the line; such as what happened in the early morning of November 6, 2005 resulting in the deadly Evansville, IN F3. Strong low-level shear can do weird things sometimes.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The forecast hodographs are nasty in that area. Fortunately right now mode looks to be a QLCS so long-track violent tornadoes do not appear likely, but with shear like this even a QLCS could certainly be capable of producing several strong tornadoes. SPC's latest discussion also does hint at the possibility of quasi-discrete supercellular elements forming out of the line; such as what happened in the early morning of November 6, 2005 resulting in the deadly Evansville, IN F3. Strong low-level shear can do weird things sometimes.

Plus mosier broyles get tad over zealous … still seeing a qlcs my eyes

 

[TornadoFan]

3 tornado warnings in effect already.

 

[warneagle]

Right in the lovely eastern panhandle/western OK radar hole too.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

First observed warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

First observed warning.

Might be the radar hole, but I sure don't see anything impressive on velocity.

 

[TornadoFan]

Cell near Benjamin, TX showing signs of rotation and a hook echo.

 

[TornadoFan]

Bit of a BWER southwest of Vernon, TX

 

[atrainguy]

Got an observed warning in KS and a radar indicated warning in OK.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[atrainguy]