• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Svr Wx threat March 24-26th 2024

KevinH

Member
Messages
1,888
Reaction score
3,069
Location
West Central GA
SPC has highlighted these days with risk areas. People on the main 2024 thread also seem to think there is potential for this event to be a bigger dal than currently anticipated.

Discuss…. lol
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
100,000th Post
Messages
4,182
Reaction score
5,528
Location
Birmingham
SPC has highlighted these days with risk areas. People on the main 2024 thread also seem to think there is potential for this event to be a bigger dal than currently anticipated.

Discuss…. lol
Im disappointed in you Kevin. You know how these events turn out never make a thread until the day of. Smh haha
 
Messages
3,065
Reaction score
5,365
Location
Madison, WI
Moisture definitely going to be the limiting factor with this one unless the upcoming weekend Gulf-Atlantic low doesn't scour out the moisture as badly as the GFS has been indicating for what seems like at least a week now...those forecast hodographs on Monday are certainly impressive, and with the way this year has gone that means you can't sleep on it.

Wish this forecast sounding wasn't in Jo Daviess County, which has some of the worst chase terrain in northern Illinois (apart from being in the Chicago metro), but it is what it is.

FH102 (18Z) actually has decent soundings over a larger area of southeast Iowa...and I just remembered I'm off work Monday so I can actually be there ahead of time. If these storm motions are right, any storms are going to be flying at near 50 MPH, but this wouldn't be my first rodeo with fast-moving storms in southeast Iowa in late March. ;)
 

Attachments

  • gfs_2024032112_105_42.25--90.0.png
    gfs_2024032112_105_42.25--90.0.png
    235.1 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:

JBishopwx

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
992
Reaction score
2,317
Location
Ackerman, MS
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
JAN:
For the Monday to Thursday periods...focus will be on
the weather system in the early part of the week followed by a cool
down and more seasonal conditions with a warmup as we approach later
week.
In a general sense, the system for early week is similar in that
it's a large scale long wave trough with embedded waves. It's these
embedded waves that are driving some of the uncertainty and a bit of
change that we are seeing in the guidance. I mention change in that
there's been a slower shift in the global guidance with the GFS/GEFS
leading the way. The notable feature driving this is the lead wave
lifting more NW/N and thus riding across the SE have a greater
influence. However, the next wave will be close on the heels and
quickly moving through the Big Bend region of S Tx. With more of the
two wave solution, you ultimately slow the frontal progression later
on Monday and help produce a surface wave feature later along the
nearly stalled front which will then allow a more progressive
eastward push of the front later Monday night into the morning hours
Tuesday. Any slower solution would also allow more quality moisture
to make it into the area ahead of the front. This quality moisture
return was a limitation in prev model solutions. Additionally, more
quality moisture will result in higher instability. Overall, this
system has poor lapse rates so there's a low ceiling for any decent
instability. However, having sbcape of 0 to 300 or sbcape of 200-700
will make a difference and with a slower evolution being the
trend...opportunity for the sbcape of 200-700 is more of a
probability than before. Speaking of wind shear and forcing, this
system will have plenty of that so it's really about getting
sufficient instability.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
4,161
Reaction score
4,387
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
A secondary low like that would spell trouble, as it would induce a mass response and enhance the low-level shear closer to the moisture source. The overall setup looked a lot less impressive when it just appeared to be the main low petering out way north over Lake Superior at that timeframe.
[eyes emoji]
 

andyhb

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
1,342
Reaction score
4,219
Location
Norman, OK
Sunday is a highly anomalous setup in the Plains. While moisture will almost certainly be on the lower end due to the prior frontal passage in the Gulf, there are very strong height falls on the order of 60-90 meters in 6 hrs between 18z and 00z. In addition, the actual 500 mb heights are nudging into the 540s in KS/N OK with 500 mb temperatures at or below -20˚C. That is extremely cold for a warm sector with any meaningful destabilization.

Would caution to trust traditional wisdom regarding thermodynamics with this setup, assuming there is anywhere near sufficient CAPE to support robust convection in the strong wind fields.
 

UncleJuJu98

Member
100,000th Post
Messages
4,182
Reaction score
5,528
Location
Birmingham
Man if a decent warm sector meshed correctly with the kinematics it would be a eventful day. This type of ejection with a sub 1000mb low usually spells trouble for the southeast when you have a relatively good warm sector. All eyes on the placement and how deep the low is and the quality of the warm sector.
 
Messages
3,065
Reaction score
5,365
Location
Madison, WI
Sunday is a highly anomalous setup in the Plains. While moisture will almost certainly be on the lower end due to the prior frontal passage in the Gulf, there are very strong height falls on the order of 60-90 meters in 6 hrs between 18z and 00z. In addition, the actual 500 mb heights are nudging into the 540s in KS/N OK with 500 mb temperatures at or below -20˚C. That is extremely cold for a warm sector with any meaningful destabilization.

Would caution to trust traditional wisdom regarding thermodynamics with this setup, assuming there is anywhere near sufficient CAPE to support robust convection in the strong wind fields.

An aside, but...

Tuscaloosa velocity couplet on AmWX.
4/27 STP map on Stormtrack.

Andy, you need a cool avatar on here!
 
Logo 468x120
Back
Top