TornadoFan
Member
00Z HRRR seems to be hinting at a line of supercells.
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NAM STP from Sat 2019-03-09 09z thru Sun 2019-03-10 09z is showing TOR soundings in North Texas, SE OK, moving thru ARK and Northern LA into West TN and Northern 2/3rds of MS. I wish I knew how to make the animated gif and save it. But I would feel better if one of you seasoned guys took a look to see if it may be overplaying the conditions. It's showing some pretty high numbers on the STP.
ETA: My techy nerd self was able to make one after all. Does this look a bit overblown to you guys?
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Definitely a curveball on the 0Z models. HRRR and 12K NAM ratcheted things up big time depicting a very dangerous environment, while 3K NAM remains more subdued.
STP tells you there is a favorable environment, but it doesn't tell you whether there will be sustained convection in a favorable mode (discrete supercells) to utilize it to its fullest. Right now it appears to me the HRRR suggests there will be, while the 3K NAM shows things remaining weaker (not sure why).
Jason Simpson from WHNT, presumablyJason?