GA Stormchaser
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00z HRRR ..... looks a little concerning........
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Severe WX Southern Severe Weather Threat: 3/9-3/10
- Thread starter Bama Ravens
- Start date
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- severe weather
MattPetrulli
Member
Dews of lower to mid 60s getting into North Central MS now....
I noticed the tds in the northern gulf and Louisiana are running higher than progged.
tennessee storm chaser
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Seems to be Less crap convection going on at the momennt as originally modeled ...
TornadoFan
Member
So will this allow more moisture return? Just curious.
tennessee storm chaser
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Would say it would help ... not lot of convection near the gulf to rob the moisture return.
Timhsv
Member
Western Franklin, AL at 21Z Saturday per HRRR. Look at that STP if it verifies..7.2 and a PDS. 0-1km at 413.....dangerous sounding
That sounding shows a cape of 2000, that is way off from what we were seeing...makes me wonder if it that is even possible. Regardless, very dangerous sounding.Western Franklin, AL at 21Z Saturday per HRRR. Look at that STP if it verifies..7.2 and a PDS. 0-1km at 413.....dangerous sounding
I don't think convection near the gulf was ever expected.
HRRR looks really, really bad. I hope it's off.
gangstonc
Member
From Dan Satterfield.
For those in the Mid-South tomorrow: There is definitely a significant risk of tornado activity from Memphis north to Paducah Ky and in surrounding areas. The more difficult forecast is how far east and south that risk extends. The slight or even enhanced risk may need to be stretched eastward to Middle TN and Northern AL depending on the track of a strong upper-level low. New guidance tonight suggests this may well be needed.
The greatest risk is later in the day, but some morning thunderstorms are likely. These may be strong but not tornadic. Those from Memphis to Paducah should pay close attention to the weather tomorrow is a watch is issued. Straightline winds are more likely over NE AL but I cannot rule out the threat being higher. Low-level instability is the limiting factor and the wind shear will be better farther N+W.
For those in the Mid-South tomorrow: There is definitely a significant risk of tornado activity from Memphis north to Paducah Ky and in surrounding areas. The more difficult forecast is how far east and south that risk extends. The slight or even enhanced risk may need to be stretched eastward to Middle TN and Northern AL depending on the track of a strong upper-level low. New guidance tonight suggests this may well be needed.
The greatest risk is later in the day, but some morning thunderstorms are likely. These may be strong but not tornadic. Those from Memphis to Paducah should pay close attention to the weather tomorrow is a watch is issued. Straightline winds are more likely over NE AL but I cannot rule out the threat being higher. Low-level instability is the limiting factor and the wind shear will be better farther N+W.
MattPetrulli
Member
04z HRRR has a band of semi discrete cells developing in West AR around 15z traversing AR and weakening as it gets into MS.
Meanwhile more cells begin to form in a very prime environment in MS/TN around 21-22z.
Something that isn't being talked about too much, I think we could have an appreciable tornado risk in Arkansas early to mid afternoon.
200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, 1100-1300 j/kg of SB CAPE, 50-60 knts of bulk shear, with a band of at least semi discrete supercells traversing the area according to HRRR. That would be an appreciable tornado risk for Arkansas alone.
Meanwhile more cells begin to form in a very prime environment in MS/TN around 21-22z.
Something that isn't being talked about too much, I think we could have an appreciable tornado risk in Arkansas early to mid afternoon.
200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, 1100-1300 j/kg of SB CAPE, 50-60 knts of bulk shear, with a band of at least semi discrete supercells traversing the area according to HRRR. That would be an appreciable tornado risk for Arkansas alone.
MattPetrulli
Member
SPC goes 10% hatched for the 3rd weekend in a row
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An
intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a
surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm
front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
Valley late.
...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in
model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance
correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
(MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very
large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of
possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through
the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid
afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An
intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK
into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a
surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO
border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm
front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH
Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will
arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward
into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH
Valley late.
...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys...
A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty
appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and
possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower
OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western
portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into
eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in
model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream
with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day
or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion
near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over
the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to
the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance
correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
(MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very
large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in
the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk
area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will
occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level
dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will
likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of
possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears
greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions
of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from
the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and
northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures
capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.
tennessee storm chaser
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Got say I’m shocked they taken Arkansas out of the enhanced risk... wouldn’t suprise me to see them by late morning expand the enhanced back some cover Arkansas ... then go moderate for north miss... a lot west tn nw Alabama
I think it is going to be moved back west tomorrow morning. They are already eyeballing West Texas.
ETA: 60s dewpoints all the way up to Columbus, MS already; Tupelo at 59 last report.
See Y'all in the morning.
Last edited:
MetFromTheBlue
Member
For some light reading... I for these on a website for verification/education purposes.. posted this last night about 30 min prior to the SPC’s original outlook.
https://skylifewx.com/2019/03/09/20190308-day-outlk/
Feedback, both meteorological and non-met (formatting, communication aspects, etc) appreciated welcome!
https://skylifewx.com/2019/03/09/20190308-day-outlk/
Feedback, both meteorological and non-met (formatting, communication aspects, etc) appreciated welcome!
akt1985
Member
Will there be enough convection east of I-65 in north Alabama this morning to limit storm chances later this afternoon? It looks like the warm front has passed well north of Huntsville and Chattanooga.
tennessee storm chaser
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that makes more sense to be honest... kept the tornado risk 10 hatched basically same location
TornadoFan
Member
Anyword on what the current storms are gonna do to the atmosphere?
