Severe WX Southern Severe Weather Threat: 3/9-3/10

[tennessee storm chaser]

This is a mess, and looks disorganized.

Let’s wait till we get into short range time. See how the hi res models handles this. Wouldn’t write it off ...

 

[TornadoFan]

NAM 3KM 00Z seems rather messy.

 

[Timhsv]

00Z NAM is more unstable over North MS. MU CAPE is now at almost 1200-1875.......EHI at 2.1- 4.2 at 0-3km ....STP is at 1.9 -3.0 and now have a PDS TOR on soundings over an area SE AR. to the Mississippi River ,to just west of I-55, and North of Jackson, MS.


Lapse Rates have improved just a tad from 3-6km at 7.1, with Td's are higher into West Tennessee at from about 65F to 67F.

Overall SRH is between 430-565 /M2S2 with 0km-08Kkm at 72knts***. Trough goes negative by 18Z and further by 00Z.


I don't think this is a weak event at all now. Yes the surface low at 993 would could be in better placement, but its a tad further south as well. Tremendous shear and an almost 85-90knt 500MB jet riding the Mississippi/ Tennessee line.

The overall boundary layer questions are still there somewhat, but improved IMO. A split 300mb jet provides some uncertainty as well

Just gota wait and see what the CAMS start showing on Friday as well.

 

[Timhsv]

As I was alluding to above:



Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2019

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLAMISS INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWESTERN TN...

 

[CheeselandSkies]

So far the NAM 3K sim ref/UH does not look impressive. I have found it to be a red flag when CAM sim ref doesn't make sense with the environmental parameters (for example if soundings say PDS TOR but sim ref/UH does not show strong, sustained UH streaks). On the other hand, when they do line up (like last Saturday), watch out.

 

[Gail]

This changed a lot.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This changed a lot.

View attachment 1149View attachment 1150

Yeah. A shift north a bit...

 

[Gail]

Yeah. A shift north a bit...

Also took out the hatched area!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Also took out the hatched area!

Think. The enhanced risk area still actually 30 hatched think Gail...

 

[Gail]

Think. The enhanced risk area still actually 30 hatched think Gail...

Oops, it is! I had the counties mapped out, and my eyes blurred the hatches out. Thanks!!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Oops, it is! I had the counties mapped out, and my eyes blurred the hatches out. Thanks!!

No. Problem. I’ve done that before also ...

 

[Austin Dawg]

That's definitely a change from what the models were doing last night. If I remember it was the ARKLATEX area, to begin with, then shifted east, now back west but more northerly.

I wonder what the next run will show? It seems very fluid.

PS: Our local office is actually talking about the next system five days ahead of time. They rarely do that no matter what the weather is going to be.

 

[Equus]

Some of the hodos for N MS tomorrow evening/night look terrifying if they pan out and anything manages to get going there.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Some of the hodos for N MS tomorrow evening/night look terrifying if they pan out and anything manages to get going there.

Hrrr model each run keeps getting more troublesome... east ark west tn north ms... short range models keep this up. Look for spc be even more aggressive in update ... hrrr done a great job just last weekend

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Okay, so we just had some drastic changes on the GFS operational, and ensembles! It took a significant trend towards the RAP, and HRRR; all of which are showing convection in a large area of very high severe parameters. What is going on here?! Those are some ridiculous changes in a model!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

These models also center the greatest risk more in the area of where the previous 30% hatch existed extending well north, and east.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Jackson TN to Memphis lights up like a Christmas tree with a line of supercells at 5pm on the NAM. Looks like that morning convection is cleared out by morning allowing plenty of time for the atmosphere to recover. Boundaries left by morning storms etc. Yikes

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Jackson TN to Memphis lights up like a Christmas tree with a line of supercells at 5pm on the NAM. Looks like that morning convection is cleared out by morning allowing plenty of time for the atmosphere to recover. Boundaries left by morning storms etc. Yikes

someone call my home town... yep just noticed that. interesting

 

[CAL]

Jackson TN to Memphis lights up like a Christmas tree with a line of supercells at 5pm on the NAM. Looks like that morning convection is cleared out by morning allowing plenty of time for the atmosphere to recover. Boundaries left by morning storms etc. Yikes

This corridor looks quite concerning in the upper height field. Some very strong signals popping that this may be bulls eye for this event per research. Corridor runs from near Holly Springs, MS to Hohenwald/Linden, TN and possibly even a bit further northeast of that.

 

[TornadoFan]