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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Austin Dawg
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- Messages
- 1,013
- Location
- Leander, Texas
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,851
- Location
- Madison, WI
Tornado-warned QLCS segment approaching Jackson, MS. Thought that wasn't supposed to happen until tomorrow, lol.
Edit: Yup, they're only (barely) in the eastern extent of the marginal risk for the currently valid outlook, and in a severe thunderstorm watch.
Edit: Yup, they're only (barely) in the eastern extent of the marginal risk for the currently valid outlook, and in a severe thunderstorm watch.
- Messages
- 876
- Location
- Kansas
Love the 8 minutes between scans on the KDGX radar...
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,851
- Location
- Madison, WI
Interestingly, 0Z HRRR depicts the ongoing tornado-warned QLCS along and west of I-55 in MS as much more discrete supercells than reality at just FH02. Casts its accuracy for the rest of the run in doubt IMO...
Ok so what's up with that? Is that a radar problem or an issue with RadarScope?Love the 8 minutes between scans on the KDGX radar...
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,851
- Location
- Madison, WI
Long-term issue with that particular radar site. Shows up across viewing platforms including GR Level 3.
CheeselandSkies
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- Messages
- 3,851
- Location
- Madison, WI
Although if it were to verify, most of the moderate risk area would just get heavy rain. Most of the UH depicted is along the southern fringe.
atrainguy
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- Messages
- 1,178
- Location
- Linden, MI
atrainguy
Member
- Messages
- 1,178
- Location
- Linden, MI
Confirmed warning now.
So essentially a useless radar in a fairly populated area, wonderful.
Thankfully, there are just 4-5 minutes on WSV3, but it's still too long.Love the 8 minutes between scans on the KDGX radar...
- Messages
- 2,837
- Location
- Smithville MS
This is interesting.
Area Hydrological Discussion #074 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
741 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
WHAT: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Northern LA, southeastern AR and central to northern MS
WHEN: Through the morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPFL 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR/WPC)
QPEL 3 - 6", locally up to 8" (24 HR MRMS QPE)
RatesL Up to 2"/hr (HRRR)
Relative Soil Moisture: Near Saturation (NASA SPoRT, 0 to 10 cm)
DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will continue to cause considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Wet soils and
elevated streamflows ahead of this event indicate that conditions are
primed for rapid runoff into streams with little room left for
in-channel storage leading to quick out-of-bank flows. This setup in
conjunction with high rainfall rates signal a significant
vulnerability to flooding impacts. Primary flooding concerns are
centered around urban areas and other low-lying areas that struggle
to resolve runoff before they are overwhelmed from the intense
rainfall. While the HRRR is struggling with the exact placement of
rainfall, confidence in significant flooding impacts materializing in
the area of concern is high. This storm has already shown to be
capable of producing enough rainfall to constitute home evacuations
and flooding of homes near the channels of smaller order streams.
The NWM SRF not only suggests widespread high flows are possible but,
streamflow annual exceedance probabilities, particularly in northern
MS, are as low as 2% suggesting significant flooding impacts may
occur. Peak flows on smaller headwaters in this region are expected
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Furthermore, rapid onset
flooding probabilities are being signaled throughout much of the area
of concern with the highest probabilities in basins near Monroe LA
and from Jackson MS northeast to Tupelo MS. Additionally, rivers are
going to begin their respective rises as these tributaries route
through the headwaters of the bigger rivers. Some of these river
rises may be rapid as locally heavy rainfall directly over river
channels will combine with flow from the tributaries. River flooding
impacts will likely continue beyond the valid period of this AHD.
Area Hydrological Discussion #074 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
741 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
WHAT: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Northern LA, southeastern AR and central to northern MS
WHEN: Through the morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPFL 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR/WPC)
QPEL 3 - 6", locally up to 8" (24 HR MRMS QPE)
RatesL Up to 2"/hr (HRRR)
Relative Soil Moisture: Near Saturation (NASA SPoRT, 0 to 10 cm)
DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will continue to cause considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. Wet soils and
elevated streamflows ahead of this event indicate that conditions are
primed for rapid runoff into streams with little room left for
in-channel storage leading to quick out-of-bank flows. This setup in
conjunction with high rainfall rates signal a significant
vulnerability to flooding impacts. Primary flooding concerns are
centered around urban areas and other low-lying areas that struggle
to resolve runoff before they are overwhelmed from the intense
rainfall. While the HRRR is struggling with the exact placement of
rainfall, confidence in significant flooding impacts materializing in
the area of concern is high. This storm has already shown to be
capable of producing enough rainfall to constitute home evacuations
and flooding of homes near the channels of smaller order streams.
The NWM SRF not only suggests widespread high flows are possible but,
streamflow annual exceedance probabilities, particularly in northern
MS, are as low as 2% suggesting significant flooding impacts may
occur. Peak flows on smaller headwaters in this region are expected
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Furthermore, rapid onset
flooding probabilities are being signaled throughout much of the area
of concern with the highest probabilities in basins near Monroe LA
and from Jackson MS northeast to Tupelo MS. Additionally, rivers are
going to begin their respective rises as these tributaries route
through the headwaters of the bigger rivers. Some of these river
rises may be rapid as locally heavy rainfall directly over river
channels will combine with flow from the tributaries. River flooding
impacts will likely continue beyond the valid period of this AHD.
Do y'all think the moderate might get expanded further north when the D1 comes out?
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,851
- Location
- Madison, WI
Unlikely given current CAM solutions. A huge convective blowup will sap instability that far north. Lots of rain and potential for flash/river flooding issues as noted above.
- Messages
- 2,837
- Location
- Smithville MS
Honestly I don't believe so. Now the Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall? Yes especially based on that discussion above.
The Colonel
Member
This line about to get into AL is not something to sleep on apparently