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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

The CAMs are... wow. But as Cheese said, LLLRs are a big question mark. Also worth noting that with a lot of the UH riding the forecasted MCS, a lot of this could be a mixture of elevated stuff (where there is lack of SBCAPE) and wind gusts.
uh03_max.us_se.pnguh03_max.us_se (1).pnguh03_max.us_se (2).pnguh03_max.us_se (3).png
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I would...too much uncertainty with lapse rates and storm mode at this point.

Now if we get great run-to-run consistency across multiple CAMS from here on depicting multiple long-track supercells ahead of the MCS, then yeah. But we're not there yet.
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They don’t always get it right this far out… they don’t always get it right the day of either lol

I said I wouldn’t doubt it simply bc it’s *APRIL* hahahaha
 
KevinH said:
They don’t always get it right this far out… they don’t always get it right the day of either lol

I said I wouldn’t doubt it simply bc it’s *APRIL* hahahaha
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Keep in mind, SPC has only used the high risk on four days total after May 18, 2017. Prior to that, it was usually seen on 3-6 days per year except in unusually quiet severe weather years.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Keep in mind, SPC has only used the high risk on four days total after May 18, 2017. Prior to that, it was usually seen on 3-6 days per year except in unusually quiet severe weather years.
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That’s fair. I haven’t seen anything that screams HIGH risk for tomorrow, but I would not be surprised if those things “showed up” between now and then lol
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Keep in mind, SPC has only used the high risk on four days total after May 18, 2017. Prior to that, it was usually seen on 3-6 days per year except in unusually quiet severe weather years.
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And, to put that in context, the Easter 2020 outbreak remained a Moderate Risk the whole day, and ended up being one of the biggest outbreaks in American history. If they were following their old methods for issuing Highs, they probably would've went with a 5/5 a lot earlier.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Keep in mind, SPC has only used the high risk on four days total after May 18, 2017. Prior to that, it was usually seen on 3-6 days per year except in unusually quiet severe weather years.
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Makes you wonder about the criteria - maybe such a strict criteria is warranted, or would the public be better served with a more relaxed criteria for High? Just musing.
 
Also interesting and MAYBE noteworthy: This morning, the front-page MDT blurb on the SPC mentioned "EF2-EF3" tornadoes possible. Now, they've opted for "EF2+" wording. Trying not to read too much into that, but yeah...lol
 
wx_guy said:
Also interesting and MAYBE noteworthy: This morning, the front-page MDT blurb on the SPC mentioned "EF2-EF3" tornadoes possible. Now, they've opted for "EF2+" wording. Trying not to read too much into that, but yeah...lol
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Different forecasters, so maybe they just elected for different verbage there.
 
Even if you had a strict criteria, you would still have people hollering Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before the event even started. LOL! Tomorrow honestly looks like a widespread damaging wind event than tornado outbreak. There's still gonna be tornadoes. If the general public just knew what all goes into forecasting these events, we would be set atop a mountain and hailed as heroes
 
JPWX said:
Even if you had a strict criteria, you would still have people hollering Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before the event even started. LOL! Tomorrow honestly looks like a widespread damaging wind event than tornado outbreak. There's still gonna be tornadoes
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Yeah, there's a large 45% hatched area for sig wind that hasn't been talked about much and will honestly probably affect many more people than any tornadoes, even though they're flashier, so to speak.

If EITHER the TOR threat goes up again (to a 30% hatched area) OR the WIND threat goes up again (to a 60% hatched area), that triggers a HIGH risk day. Just fyi for anyone wondering.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Keep in mind, SPC has only used the high risk on four days total after May 18, 2017. Prior to that, it was usually seen on 3-6 days per year except in unusually quiet severe weather years.
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Yeah they’ve really tightened up in recent years. I believe 5/20/2019 also made them even more conservative. The language they put out for that date was the same you saw for 4/27/11, but one surpassed and verified and the other didn’t.
 
The HazCast for severe Wind Wednesday night/Thursday morning is quite elevated, with a large area in the FL Panhandle and across S AL and SW GA above 30%. HazCast, from my experience, has a low bias, so these numbers are probably lower than reality.


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wx_guy said:
The HazCast for severe Wind Wednesday night/Thursday morning is quite elevated, with a large area in the FL Panhandle and across S AL and SW GA above 30%. HazCast, from my experience, has a low bias, so these numbers are probably lower than reality.


View attachment 25256
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A bit surprised by those ~20% values in NW GA. Models not depicting much of anything in the way of surface-based instability up here.
 
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