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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

18Z HRRR has UH further south than in 12Z, more where I would expect. Major soaker for much of the South either way, though.
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JPWX said:
Even if you had a strict criteria, you would still have people hollering Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency before the event even started. LOL! Tomorrow honestly looks like a widespread damaging wind event than tornado outbreak. There's still gonna be tornadoes. If the general public just knew what all goes into forecasting these events, we would be set atop a mountain and hailed as heroes
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I think you're giving the general public too much credit my friend. No matter how perfect a forecast turns out to be, there's always gonna be some group of people who will look for an excuse to complain no matter what...
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Wouldn't be surprised for a extension of the moderate more east. Big day for damaging winds no matter the tornado threat. HUUUUGE wind damage potential lol. Wondering if we get a wind driven high risk?
 
Feel like this boundary setup around Austin TX is being overlooked today. There's 4000+ CAPE and an outflow boundary sitting right over the city rn with the developing supercell to the west. At the minimum, this may become a very expensive hailstorm and I would not rule out tornadoes.
 
TH2002 said:
I think you're giving the general public too much credit my friend. No matter how perfect a forecast turns out to be, there's always gonna be some group of people who will look for an excuse to complain no matter what...
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The SPC issues a 60% hatched area for extremely violent tornadoes. Some people complain because there was a few more tornadoes in the 45% hatched area than the 60% hatched. There were also a few more long tracked tornadoes in the 15%, 30%, and 45% hatched areas. We could go on forever.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
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Not directed at you because you understand meteorological aspects, but I can see why WXTwitter has the reputation it does.

That tweeter most likely knows exactly what they’re doing, and it’s very Reed Timmer-like hype man stuff.

Posting the screenshot of a single model that features high-end potential values without elaborating or mentioning synoptic, mesoscale, storm mode, and other important factors and just saying “ok” is a give away. It’s okay to do on here because we can ascertain what it’s saying. Every day people can’t. Reminds me of Spann’s rant on the TorCon index a few years back.
 
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Storm south of Brady TX also has a very intense meso aloft. Considering the dewpoints are still in the 70s north of the boundary, I don't see much reason why these can't thrive, much like the recent HRRR runs have shown through Central TX.
 
KevinH said:
What does abs calibrated mean? And how does it different from the “2022” model version.
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Great question! The absolutely calibrated Nadocast model differs from the "standard" calibration that is advertised on its main Twitter page, and there's a reason the Abs Cal version is hidden deep in its data archives. The Abs Cal version is basically the raw, unadjusted probabilities it spits out. The algorithm then standardizes it to the SPC's risk probabilities for its standard 2022 version. Thus, on the regular Nadocast, a 15% corresponds to a 15% from the SPC. On the Abs Cal version, a 15% corresponds to nothing, it's just the raw output probability. So when people post the Abs Cal version, it's usually higher and more hype-ified and click-tastic than the normal version. The normal version can somewhat be compared, apples to apples, with the SPC's probabilistic scheme.
 
wx_guy said:
Great question! The absolutely calibrated Nadocast model differs from the "standard" calibration that is advertised on its main Twitter page, and there's a reason the Abs Cal version is hidden deep in its data archives. The Abs Cal version is basically the raw, unadjusted probabilities it spits out. The algorithm then standardizes it to the SPC's risk probabilities for its standard 2022 version. Thus, on the regular Nadocast, a 15% corresponds to a 15% from the SPC. On the Abs Cal version, a 15% corresponds to nothing, it's just the raw output probability. So when people post the Abs Cal version, it's usually higher and more hype-ified and click-tastic than the normal version. The normal version can somewhat be compared, apples to apples, with the SPC's probabilistic scheme.
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Ok cool

Throw out the abs version lol
 
Model and weather question both here. Why is the NAM models and SREF ARW so off with the displacement of the highest precip totals?

Leading up this event, the SREF ARW had the highest precip where the WPC had it across MS.
 

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JPWX said:
Model and weather question both here. Why is the NAM models and SREF ARW so off with the displacement of the highest precip totals?

Leading up this event, the SREF ARW had the highest precip where the WPC had it across MS.
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Not so sure about the SREF but the NAM seems to depict relatively little precip aside from what we've got going on right now and what will be happening later tomorrow, so I think it's probably underdoing convection compared to other models.
 
18z HRRR seems to be the outlier for a more confined coastal threat. I think the 18z HRRR run is a fluke. 00z and moving forward will probably come closer to the WRF runs. There's potential tommorow for a long track significant tornado or two. But man I wouldn't bet on it, will know more as the event approaches tomorrow morning. Defiantly would not chase this, unless you just want to see sheets of rain falling from the sky.

If I were a betting man a couple of confluence band supercells may pop up in the south Mississippi/ east Louisiana area.. if not your just looking at a MCS with embedded meso vortices. Huge damaging wind threat tomorrow though I think.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
18z HRRR seems to be the outlier for a more confined coastal threat. I think the 18z HRRR run is a fluke. 00z and moving forward will probably come closer to the WRF runs. There's potential tommorow for a long track significant tornado or two. But man I wouldn't bet on it, will know more as the event approaches tomorrow morning. Defiantly would not chase this, unless you just want to see sheets of rain falling from the sky.

If I were a betting man a couple of confluence band supercells may pop up in the south Mississippi/ east Louisiana area.. if not your just looking at a MCS with embedded meso vortices. Huge damaging wind threat tomorrow though I think.
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All of the MPAS members agree with the HRRR that the QLCS basically removes most of the instability. The QLCS looks very intense though.
 
Per NAM progression noted in Trey's earlier video, ongoing supercells along the I-35 corridor are likely west of the low-level jet and in an environment of limited low-level shear (fortunately for Austin, Jarrell, etc). Storms northeast of Houston might have a better chance to become tornadic over the next few hours if they can remain at least semi-discrete.
 
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