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Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

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wx_guy

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Tennie said:
Do you think you could post the source code to Github or whatever, so that we can try our own hands at running some simulations ourselves? Because this looks quite fascinating to me, enough so that I want to try my hand at generating some simulations myself just to see what kinds of results that would produce!:cool:
Click to expand...
Sure! https://github.com/stuartjonesstats/spc.git

Let me know if you have trouble accessing it. Disclaimer: I am amateur at Python coding, I do it for fun but an expert coder will laugh at my code probably haha

So some explanation - You need the link to the Areal Convective Outlook file for the code to work. This is found in a link at the bottom of the page that they post the Convective Outlook on. For example, the existing one is found here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/KWNSPTSDY1_202404101300.txt

The code currently only works with TOR, but you can modify it for WIND and HAIL as well. It draws out the area of the threat zones and uses the latitudes and longitudes given by the SPC for the borders of those zones to do the math with.

The math is like this: First, use an exponential distribution to generate a number of random points inside each of the threat zones. I chose this distribution because it tends towards a lower value (most severe events are lower numbers) but has a long tail to accommodate realistic chances of real outbreaks. Second, for each of those random points, it checks them probabilistically against the threat zone it falls in -- so if it falls in the 2% zone, it only has a 2% chance of getting plotted. If it falls in the 15% chance zone, it has a 15% chance of getting plotted, etc. Third, if a point also falls inside a SIG zone, there is a further chance that it gets plotted in white to signify a significant (EF2+) tornado. The chance is the same as the zone it is in, so in a 10% hatched area, there's a 10% chance of every plotted TOR being SIG, in a 15% hatched there's a 15% chance of every plotted TOR being SIG, etc.

Also note the code isn't truly finished -- since the current event only goes up to 15% hatched, I didn't add in code for 30%, 45%, and 60% plots, so if you want these, you'll need to add them in (same way as the others are added in).

Finally, please note that I typed this code up last night half-asleep, so there's very likely tiny errors in the logic in a place or two, so if you're good at catching those, you can probably fix up the code a bit.

I think that's everything. Enjoy!
 
CheeselandSkies

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Really weird orientation of the two tornado warning polygons, with confusing storm speeds. One moving north at 25 MPH, the other moving east at 65?

Edit: Annnnnd KHDC seems to have stopped updating on my RadarScope. Swell.
 
Taylor Campbell

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OHWX97 said:
That was nasty looking couplet moving over the city, but I haven't gotten any new scans from either KHDC and TMSY in ten minutes, which is kinda supicious. Anybody else having the same issue?
Click to expand...

Got an update now. There is a TDS!
 
Taylor Campbell

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Geesh looks like a radar update every 8-12 minutes with this new radar. Much bigger TDS now.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Really weird orientation of the two tornado warning polygons, with confusing storm speeds. One moving north at 25 MPH, the other moving east at 65?

Edit: Annnnnd KHDC seems to have stopped updating on my RadarScope. Swell.
Click to expand...
Two separate tornadoes I believe.

The one traveling north was from a discreet cell, and the one moving east was from the line. I believe the line absorbed the cell???
 
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