Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

[TornadoFan17]

Still a very strong couplet NW of Wade, MS.

 

[KevinH]

Honestly, in this day of social media, hyperbole, and viral clickbait, I don't even think the NWS New Orleans 2005 Katrina verbiage would have much of an effect anymore. Beyond extreme and irresponsible language being used, most people nowadays will just shrug. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think the public is desensitized largely.

Yep. I would not disagree.

Being desensitized is really dangerous. I think a lot of people are going to have to “mess around and find out”… which the SPC/NWS try their best to mitigate lol

The SPC/NWS can only do so much. What actions people take when a warning is issued for their area is up to them.

 

[wx_guy]

"THIS IS CRAZY (NOT CLICKBAIT, WEDGES)"
-Average YouTube video title, accompanied by a neon-colored thumbnail with zero context.

"This tornado warning is an extinction-level event. If you are higher than 30 feet below ground, you will unalive yourself. Concrete steel-reinforced structures will be reduced to atoms."

 

[KevinH]

"THIS IS CRAZY (NOT CLICKBAIT, WEDGES)"
-Average YouTube video title, accompanied by a neon-colored thumbnail with zero context.

@Clancy stop it lol

 

[wx_guy]

I've been really fascinated by the structure on the mesos on this MCS. Large, sweeping vortexes visible on velocity with tiny couplets located within them. Like vortex-ception.
View attachment 25299

I'm super curious how this will evolve moving eastward. The models are less useful now. It's really a wait-and-see thing.

 

[lake.effect]

Live feed of New Orleans showing substantial street flooding already in the French Quarter.
Potentially serious situation unfolding there.

 

[wx_guy]

Live feed of New Orleans showing substantial street flooding already in the French Quarter.
Potentially serious situation unfolding there.

Yeah, this is going to be bad, they have so much rain still to come.

 

[Clancy]

MDT pushed eastwards on the newest update.

 

[wx_guy]

MDT pushed eastwards on the newest update.

Yep, and importantly (at least in my neck of the woods), the hatched TOR and WIND areas also pushed further east.

 

[Clancy]

TOR for a storm almost on top of KMOB.

 

[buckeye05]

Watch me eat my words in the next hour, but I’m pretty surprised they kept the 15% hatched tornado risk.

 

[Clancy]

Watch me eat my words in the next hour, but I’m pretty surprised they kept the 15% hatched tornado risk.

A #-10% would probably suffice, though that 45% wind is more than justified.

 

[wx_guy]

Honestly, a 10% or 15% isn't mathematically that much different in most circumstances. 7 tornadoes versus 10 or 11, for instance. It's more of a messaging device than anything.

 

[buckeye05]

A #-10% would probably suffice, though that 45% wind is more than justified.

Yeah I think it’s clear the main story from this system will be flooding and straight line winds. Things are looking really messy in terms of storm mode though, so I’d say the tornado threat is a different story at this point. Still, there’ll be at least a few more spinups.

 

[wx_guy]

As forecasted, the low-level Lapse Rates are probably keeping the tornado threat in check mostly. We'll see if that continues, if the storms can push beyond that limitation, but it looks like the LL-LR are locked in.

 

[Clancy]

Solid couplet now evident N of Mobile.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Meanwhile, on the updated Day 2, tornado-driven (10%, not hatched) Enhanced risk in the E OH/W PA/NW WV region.

 

[RollTide18]

BMX lowered the risk for their area

 

[treypops]

"This tornado warning is an extinction-level event. If you are higher than 30 feet below ground, you will unalive yourself. Concrete steel-reinforced structures will be reduced to atoms."

I joke with my son all the time who's a meteorology major - whenever we're under the gun for severe weather: "There's a hundred and twenty percent chance of violent, EF-50 Tornados with embedded running chainsaws within a 50 foot radius of any location in our hatched area."

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Honestly, a 10% or 15% isn't mathematically that much different in most circumstances. 7 tornadoes versus 10 or 11, for instance. It's more of a messaging device than anything.

well the 10 percent is 10-14 while the 15 is 15-29, it can be a significant difference. I would like to see SPC get more dialed in when it comes to a mdt risk of tornadoes. This was Def a mdt risk for winds!