Grazulis' possible basis for an EF4 rating for Lockett?
There were 4 EF2 and 1 EF3 tornado in this outbreak so I think he just mislabled It as 4 EF3 and 1 EF4 imho.
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Grazulis' possible basis for an EF4 rating for Lockett?
I highly doubt it will be upgraded but the 4/29/2022 Andover EF3 is a potential EF4, given the violent rotation alone. There was some severe debarking along the path, and homes swept from their subfloors can be rated EF4 if context supports a rating higher than EF3 (11/17/2013 Washington IL for example) and I feel it does in this case. At the very least, I would have kept the wind speed estimate at 165 (highest end EF3) rather than downgrade it to 155.what tornadoes...if any...have the possibility of being upgraded to EF4 by years end? between all of the high end EF3's...
The 12/23/2015 Holly Springs tornado is easily one of the most loosely documented tornadoes of the 2010's as far as damage goes, mostly due to one of the worst, least thorough damage surveys of all time on behalf of NWS Memphis. Really, the only area that got thoroughly surveyed was the Holly Springs Motorsports Park, awesome work by @CAL (not sure if he still posts here or not) and no thanks in part to MEG's survey teams.
The TornadoTalk article describes instances of incredible damage in Marshall County (before striking Holly Springs) where trees were debarked, the ground was reportedly scoured and even shrubbery was pulled up from the ground and shredded. It may have been even more violent in Benton County, where the extreme contextual damage continued now including vehicles hurled and mangled beyond recognition, and many homes were swept away. I wouldn't expect every single home in this rural area to be thoroughly documented and surveyed, but beyond that one home near Ashland I can't find a single photo. Not even a distant aerial view. Nothing.
Not sure what kind of excuse NWS Memphis could possibly have to justify this, but their track record really speaks for itself. If the area was inaccessible to ground survey crews (maybe the case here?) that would be one thing, but could they AT LEAST have taken some aerial shots of the damage in Marshall and Benton County?
Anyways, sorry for the rant lol.
Despite how poorly documented the damage is overall, there's no shortage of footage of the tornado itself. This video is a bit shaky, but probably the best video of the tornado IMO; it really puts into perspective just how monstrous and violent this tornado was.
I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.I highly doubt it will be upgraded but the 4/29/2022 Andover EF3 is a potential EF4, given the violent rotation alone. There was some severe debarking along the path, and homes swept from their subfloors can be rated EF4 if context supports a rating higher than EF3 (11/17/2013 Washington IL for example) and I feel it does in this case. At the very least, I would have kept the wind speed estimate at 165 (highest end EF3) rather than downgrade it to 155.
would the nws ever give out a 167 mph EF4 rating?I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.
Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.
Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.
Off hand I'm not sure exactly what video shows the shipping container being lofted (I know I saw it somewhere though) but I came across this video a couple days ago that I hadn't seen before:
Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.
Off hand I'm not sure exactly what video shows the shipping container being lofted (I know I saw it somewhere though) but I came across this video a couple days ago that I hadn't seen before:
It's those undocumented 5/31/1985 tornadoes all over again!I swear to god every day it seems a new tornado pops up lol