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TH2002

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what tornadoes...if any...have the possibility of being upgraded to EF4 by years end? between all of the high end EF3's...
I highly doubt it will be upgraded but the 4/29/2022 Andover EF3 is a potential EF4, given the violent rotation alone. There was some severe debarking along the path, and homes swept from their subfloors can be rated EF4 if context supports a rating higher than EF3 (11/17/2013 Washington IL for example) and I feel it does in this case. At the very least, I would have kept the wind speed estimate at 165 (highest end EF3) rather than downgrade it to 155.
 

TH2002

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The 12/23/2015 Holly Springs tornado is easily one of the most loosely documented tornadoes of the 2010's as far as damage goes, mostly due to one of the worst, least thorough damage surveys of all time on behalf of NWS Memphis. Really, the only area that got thoroughly surveyed was the Holly Springs Motorsports Park, awesome work by @CAL (not sure if he still posts here or not) and no thanks in part to MEG's survey teams.

The TornadoTalk article describes instances of incredible damage in Marshall County (before striking Holly Springs) where trees were debarked, the ground was reportedly scoured and even shrubbery was pulled up from the ground and shredded. It may have been even more violent in Benton County, where the extreme contextual damage continued now including vehicles hurled and mangled beyond recognition, and many homes were swept away. I wouldn't expect every single home in this rural area to be thoroughly documented and surveyed, but beyond that one home near Ashland I can't find a single photo. Not even a distant aerial view. Nothing.

Not sure what kind of excuse NWS Memphis could possibly have to justify this, but their track record really speaks for itself. If the area was inaccessible to ground survey crews (maybe the case here?) that would be one thing, but could they AT LEAST have taken some aerial shots of the damage in Marshall and Benton County?

Anyways, sorry for the rant lol.

Despite how poorly documented the damage is overall, there's no shortage of footage of the tornado itself. This video is a bit shaky, but probably the best video of the tornado IMO; it really puts into perspective just how monstrous and violent this tornado was.
 
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the five deadliest tornadoes of the modern era are
the may 22 2011 joplin missouri EF5 at 158 fatalities
the april 27 2011 hackleburg-phil campbell alabama EF5 at 72 fatalities
the april 27 2011 tuscaloosa-birmingham alabama EF4 at 64 fatalities
the december 10 2021 cayce-bremen kentucky EF4 at 58 fatalities
and the april 27 2011 rainsville alabama EF5 at 25 fatalities
 

buckeye05

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The 12/23/2015 Holly Springs tornado is easily one of the most loosely documented tornadoes of the 2010's as far as damage goes, mostly due to one of the worst, least thorough damage surveys of all time on behalf of NWS Memphis. Really, the only area that got thoroughly surveyed was the Holly Springs Motorsports Park, awesome work by @CAL (not sure if he still posts here or not) and no thanks in part to MEG's survey teams.

The TornadoTalk article describes instances of incredible damage in Marshall County (before striking Holly Springs) where trees were debarked, the ground was reportedly scoured and even shrubbery was pulled up from the ground and shredded. It may have been even more violent in Benton County, where the extreme contextual damage continued now including vehicles hurled and mangled beyond recognition, and many homes were swept away. I wouldn't expect every single home in this rural area to be thoroughly documented and surveyed, but beyond that one home near Ashland I can't find a single photo. Not even a distant aerial view. Nothing.

Not sure what kind of excuse NWS Memphis could possibly have to justify this, but their track record really speaks for itself. If the area was inaccessible to ground survey crews (maybe the case here?) that would be one thing, but could they AT LEAST have taken some aerial shots of the damage in Marshall and Benton County?

Anyways, sorry for the rant lol.

Despite how poorly documented the damage is overall, there's no shortage of footage of the tornado itself. This video is a bit shaky, but probably the best video of the tornado IMO; it really puts into perspective just how monstrous and violent this tornado was.

NWS Memphis is one I have categorized as conservative, but I’d say their approach is more along the lines of “we don’t really give a s**t”. They’re lazy and not thorough at all.

The miles and miles of violent damage that simply wasn’t surveyed from New Wren 2011 speaks for itself. If they don’t really care, they should at least consult someone who does. CAL and Tornado Talk did a better job with Holly Springs that the NWS did. If that isn’t indicative of a problem, I don’t know what is.
 

Western_KS_Wx

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I highly doubt it will be upgraded but the 4/29/2022 Andover EF3 is a potential EF4, given the violent rotation alone. There was some severe debarking along the path, and homes swept from their subfloors can be rated EF4 if context supports a rating higher than EF3 (11/17/2013 Washington IL for example) and I feel it does in this case. At the very least, I would have kept the wind speed estimate at 165 (highest end EF3) rather than downgrade it to 155.
I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.
 
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I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.
would the nws ever give out a 167 mph EF4 rating?
 

TH2002

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I personally saw the damage in Andover near the YMCA and where the anchor-bolted pet store was obliterated and I can safely say the tornado was very likely at EF4 strength in that area. Contextual damage alone could’ve warranted an EF4 rating trees were completely shredded including some that were debarked or ripped out of the ground whole and ground scouring occurred as well. Large storage containers were also tossed around including one that was captured on camera being lofted several hundred feet in the air and landing a couple hundred yards away. Vehicles were also heavily mangled and plastered in mud, I actually got to talk to a local who worked at the YMCA that said one of the vehicles from the parking lot was lofted over the building and landed in the tree line behind the pet store nearly 400 yards away.
Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.

Off hand I'm not sure exactly what video shows the shipping container being lofted (I know I saw it somewhere though) but I came across this video a couple days ago that I hadn't seen before:
 

pohnpei

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Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.

Off hand I'm not sure exactly what video shows the shipping container being lofted (I know I saw it somewhere though) but I came across this video a couple days ago that I hadn't seen before:


This was the video showed container being lofted most clearly around 5:12.
Damage of this place
-789d60eb1c1b107.jpg110452811c346edd.jpg

Detailed analysis of Reed's video
 
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yeah...EF4 type violence clearly. too bad the weirdness of the construction of alot of the structures hit led to such a low rating. 155mph EF3...needs to be 165 minimum but more appropriate as the ole 170...
 
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in one of reed timmers video on andover. you can see the tornado pretty much explode the pet shop while it was possessing those rapid swirly horizonal vortices. just a rapidly rising thick cloud of fresh debris spinning up from the ground.
 

Western_KS_Wx

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Interesting! Had no idea the tornado caused ground scouring, maybe I missed something. Any photos of this? Vehicles being mangled and/or tossed hundreds of yards is another thing I tend to correlate with violent tornadoes. In any case Andover got extremely, EXTREMELY lucky in the sense that such a violent tornado resulted in no fatalities and only a few minor injuries. Likely owing in part due to the storm's high visibility and striking before dark, but had this same tornado gone through a town in the era before tornado watches and warnings I'd imagine the outcome would have been very different.

Off hand I'm not sure exactly what video shows the shipping container being lofted (I know I saw it somewhere though) but I came across this video a couple days ago that I hadn't seen before:

Right along where the tree line is and along the median of the highway is where there was ground scouring it wasn’t anything insane but it was definitely visible. The damage to the pet store itself was impressive and considering how narrow the tornado was and the ground speed it likely spent just a few seconds over the area. I unfortunately didn’t take much pictures (still kicking myself for that) but got some of the pet store and debarked trees.
3A2DC5CB-567B-4412-97CA-3515F7FED3B0.jpeg

14772_5e5bf584596634dde968cb985d8f6418.jpeg

7EB82E0E-D369-487C-B15B-04F76C3FB4AF.jpeg

This is the vehicle that was mentioned by the YMCA worker as being lofted over the building and landing nearly 500 (not 400) yards away.
96E7B6FD-1B81-4033-B564-86834E3BF67F.jpeg
5618D950-078D-43AF-91F1-A6660A724597.jpeg
 

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locomusic01

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Man, the more research I do the more convinced I become that June 11-13, 1899 was a legit outbreak sequence. Not, like, dozens and dozens of tornadoes or anything, but substantially more than have made it into the official record. On 6/11, the first in what was likely a family of tornadoes caused major damage to a few farms near Hubbard, NE. It seems to have traveled ~6-7 miles or so before cycling, at which point it produced the Homer-Salix F4. That tornado moved almost due east through most of its path before dipping more east-southeast just outside of Salix. It then appears to have rapidly occluded south of town, producing a second tornado while the first was still recurving sharply northeastward.

FTLb229.png


I'm still working on the other paths from this family, but multiple eyewitnesses in Salix reported seeing the storm "split," with the original tornado turning up toward Luton and another continuing toward the southeast. There were at least spotty reports of significant damage from north of Sloan almost to Mapleton, which is ~20 miles or so. Not sure if I'll be able to sort out tornadic vs. straight-line damage, but I'm fairly confident it was some combination of the two. There may have been tornadoes near Emerson, NE; Sergeant Bluff, IA; Whiting, IA and Ono/Rock Elm, WI on the 11th as well but I'm not as sure about them yet.

On the 12th, there were the tornadoes I've already mentioned before (the New Richmond family + Little Carnelian Lake, Lake Elmo & Hastings, MN) plus possibly a couple others that I'm still working on, including a final tornado in the New Richmond family that reportedly leveled homes and businesses around Barron and Cameron, WI. And then on the 13th there was obviously the extremely intense Herman, NE F4, but also others near Rodman, IA; Swea City, IA; Carson, IA and Nebraska City, NE. There were apparently tornadoes in Omro, WI and Cartersville, IL on the 14th as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were more out there as well. Telegraph lines were down across a huge area and the massive flooding made it difficult to travel even via train. Word filtered in very slowly from the most rural areas, and in some cases was probably never reported at all. Or at least not outside of the local small-town papers.
 
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