Lake Martin EF4
Member
I think I do. Grazulis is working with Tim Marshall for SigTor2022.
So, unfortunately, it seems this is Tim Marshall intervening to keep his precious EF4 Vilonia rating intact.
F**k Tim Marshall.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather!
We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Significant Tornado Events
- Thread starter locomusic01
- Start date
So, unfortunately, it seems this is Tim Marshall intervening to keep his precious EF4 Vilonia rating intact.
F**k Tim Marshall.
MNTornadoGuy
Member
I doubt Tim Marshall has to do anything with this. I think this is just Grazulis’s own opinion.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I doubt the man that basically bent over backwards to ensure F5 for Worcester would have Vilonia, as obvious an EF5 as they come, as an EF4. This is most likely Marshall's work.
Juliett Bravo Kilo
Member
I really think this is Marshall's doing but if Grazulis is allowing Marshall to push him around like this my respect for him is gonna go downhill real fast.
eric11
Member
- Messages
- 322
- Reaction score
- 769
- Location
- Shanghai，China
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
- ARRL Member
Haven't heard any info about this tornado, I once thought 2000 was a BA year in terms of Great Plains tornado activity, but there're several impressive events in May and July, including Waterloo/Dunkerton IA tornado family on 5/11, Laguna Park TX on 5/12, Brady NE on 5/18 and Granite Falls MN on 7/25, would like to hear more about these tors
MNTornadoGuy
Member
There is no evidence of Tim Marshall influencing this at all.
MNTornadoGuy
Member
Detailed information about Laguna Park has been posted here before. Also I don’t believe the Granite Falls tornado should have been F4, the rating was based on a single rail car. All other damage was F2-F3.
Juliett Bravo Kilo
Member
Why would Grazulis side with EF4 for Vilonia, then? Really strange.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I swear I heard somewhere Grazulis was working with Tim Marshall for the book.
I don't know whether Marshall had a influence on his opinion. I think these were just assumption at best. He do respect and believe Marshall's judgement which can be interpreted by some of his twitters.
At least, at this point, we really can not expect any pressure he would give to the authority for rating issues. DOW research found that 20% of supercell tornados had EF4/5 winds despite the fact that almost all the characters of DOW tend to underestimat true winds inside tornados. These were actual data! Not assumption or estimation. Did these findings have any pressure on rating? No. I think we may expect too much on Grazulis.
At least, at this point, we really can not expect any pressure he would give to the authority for rating issues. DOW research found that 20% of supercell tornados had EF4/5 winds despite the fact that almost all the characters of DOW tend to underestimat true winds inside tornados. These were actual data! Not assumption or estimation. Did these findings have any pressure on rating? No. I think we may expect too much on Grazulis.
Last edited:
I think 2000 would most likely ended up having zero EF4 tornado If using today's standard.
eric11
Member
- Messages
- 322
- Reaction score
- 769
- Location
- Shanghai，China
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
- ARRL Member
The Waterloo-Dunkerton tornado family on 5/11/2000 definitely had some pretty high ceiling but lack of information.According to Roger Hill, A cyclic supercell spawned at least 13 tors in IA alone on that day though only 7 of them got confirmed.
There's a large wedge tornado near Waterloo had a visual apperance of violent and demolished some farmhouses, Roger Hill claimed it was an F4 but likely official rating was F3
This storm had some classic chase video that I'd like to put it into Top10 tornado videos in early 2000s
Regardless of whether you like Marshall or not, there is zero factual evidence of his involvement in the book, and the conspiratorial assumptions going on in here are pretty ridiculous. Stick with the facts people.
The reality is that these things don’t happen because of insurance premiums, politicians, or conspiracies, but because some people just are not good at accurately rating tornadoes. It’s not more complex than that.
The reality is that these things don’t happen because of insurance premiums, politicians, or conspiracies, but because some people just are not good at accurately rating tornadoes. It’s not more complex than that.
There's a little too much conspiracy in this thread over the past few pages. Remember that Tim Marshall's report on Vilonia did not include any of the houses that were potential EF5 candidates in/near Vilonia. I'm pointing the finger at NWS Little Rock here more than Marshall.
It's obvious from Grazulis' wording that he believes Vilonia was worthy of an EF5 rating. For him to include the asterisk is noteworthy in itself.
It's obvious from Grazulis' wording that he believes Vilonia was worthy of an EF5 rating. For him to include the asterisk is noteworthy in itself.
MNTornadoGuy
Member
It’s quite possible that Grazulis might use “Possibly F5” “Probably F5” or “Near-F5” wording for tornadoes like Vilonia and Goldsby. He does that for other cases in his 1880-1989 book.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
It's rating time.
Yes, for wood framed houses, all walls collapsed could now literally lead to EF5. This is official, by the way.
EDIT: Actually it seems its a spreadsheet compiling all the official data. Still, exciting!
Yes, for wood framed houses, all walls collapsed could now literally lead to EF5. This is official, by the way.
EDIT: Actually it seems its a spreadsheet compiling all the official data. Still, exciting!
Last edited:
Definitely some interesting stuff here. I'm assuming the entry for the new tree scale is incomplete? It tops out at 110 MPH, with no mention of more severe degrees of tree damage, such as stubbing or debarking. The vehicle scale is really cool too.
- Messages
- 4,515
- Reaction score
- 9,049
- Location
- California, United States
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
I know a lot of this thread has lately become people freaking out over Grazulis' wording on Vilonia, and I think it's time to take a chill pill from that. Sure, be concerned about his stance and wording if you wish, but as @buckeye05 and @andyhb said there really isn't any solid evidence Marshall is influencing Grazulis for his new book. Even if he is, I'm sure Grazulis is MORE than aware of the EF5 candidate homes in Vilonia that weren't included in Marshall's report, and I really don't see what Tom has to lose at this point if someone were trying to "intimidate" him.
And at the end of the day, the book isn't even published yet. We won't really know what his final wording will be until the book is actually finished as I doubt he'll straight up spoil his finalized entry on Vilonia and other tornadoes beforehand.
And at the end of the day, the book isn't even published yet. We won't really know what his final wording will be until the book is actually finished as I doubt he'll straight up spoil his finalized entry on Vilonia and other tornadoes beforehand.
The fact he recognizes how controversial that rating has been is a good start.
Juliett Bravo Kilo
Member
When is the new book supposed to come out? Seems like it keeps getting delayed.....