Significant Tornado Events

[andyhb]

On 4/27/11:

I was over on stormtrack looking at the 4/27/11 thread, and this comment from Jeff Duda(who has a PhD) really kind of blew my mind. It makes you ponder on how there’s such a very thin line between a minor to bad outbreak, to historical outbreak. And sometimes something as small as storm spacing can be the difference.

I’d love to hear some of our Met’s on this board thoughts on this.

Jeff Duda:
This is what always floors me about major severe weather outbreaks. The same thing was true of the Super Outbreak, and probably of other known major severe weather outbreaks (I only know this fact about the Super Outbreak due to this paper). It's sort of frightening to realize that such a major severe weather event can be spawned from a seemingly innocent looking synoptic setup. Granted, anyone with experience watching synoptic scale patterns associated with major tornado outbreaks would've been able to recognize the potential this day had when looking at model forecasts a few days out. But really, the same ingredients that were in this event are in many severe weather events, even those that aren't major:
-a moderate amplitude trough aloft with neutral to negative tilt that was propagating east/northeast
-moderately unstable air mass with mid-upper 60s dewpoints in the warm sector and 80-90 F surface temperatures
-Strong low-level and deep layer shear
-Moderate low-level instability
-A surface boundary or synoptic scale lift to trigger storms

Think about it, how often do you see these features with other severe weather setups? Almost each one appears regularly. Yes, the degree of deep layer and low-level shear was on the extreme end of the statistical distribution, but I have seen such high levels of shear and helicity associated with instability and forcing that did not result in a major tornado outbreak in other cases. There are likely a few smaller ingredients that came together to make these storms spin like tops and drop violent tornadoes left and right. These are the ingredients that projects like VORTEX2 are trying to discover.

Let me reiterate: from a synoptic standpoint, there was little about this setup that was unusual, uncommon, or difficult for the atmosphere to achieve.

Lol. That is my response. Also, see the below graph via Jon Davies.

 

[ColdFront]

Lol. That is my response. Also, see the below graph via Jon Davies.

View attachment 20139

Looks like it’s right in that sweet zone of SRH/MLCAPE balance.

No two events are alike, So I guess my follow up question would be, are there atmospheric processes that occur that keeps SRH and MLCAPE from being in that sweet zone more often than not? So you’ll see values where one is higher and not the other?

Edit: misread please ignore.
I see instances to the left of 4/27/11 and top-left but nothing to the right of it.

I’d love to see, and I know it’s not possible, 3/4/74 on there, Palm Sunday, and Deep South 1932.

I also want to reiterate that I’m not asking “why don’t these generational outbreaks happen more often” I guess I’m just trying to understand since if it’s not uncommon for the atmosphere to achieve, what keeps it from being more common than say a 40 year timespan? Perfect synergetic balance of all parts?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like it’s right in that sweet zone of SRH/MLCAPE balance.

No two events are alike, So I guess my follow up question would be, are there atmospheric processes that occur that keeps SRH and MLCAPE from being in that sweet zone more often than not? So you’ll see values where one is higher and not the other?

I see instances to the left of 4/27/11 and top-left but nothing to the right of it.

I’d love to see, and I know it’s not possible, 3/4/74 on there, Palm Sunday, and Deep South 1932.

I also want to reiterate that I’m not asking “why don’t these generational outbreaks happen more often” I guess I’m just trying to understand since if it’s not uncommon for the atmosphere to achieve, what keeps it from being more common than say a 40 year timespan? Perfect synergetic balance of all parts?

I think Andy's argument was that such a perfect balance is uncommon for the atmosphere to achieve...but on the other hand I think Jeff's point on Stormtrack was that the surface cyclone(s) on 4/27/11 (or 4/3/74) weren't exceptionally intense, nor were the longwave troughs substantially different from others that have historically supported synoptically-evident tornado outbreaks; only an extreme minority of which reach this level of coverage/intensity.

 

[ColdFront]

I think Andy's argument was that such a perfect balance is uncommon for the atmosphere to achieve...but on the other hand I think Jeff's point on Stormtrack was that the surface cyclone(s) on 4/27/11 (or 4/3/74) weren't exceptionally intense, nor were the longwave troughs substantially different from others that have historically supported synoptically-evident tornado outbreaks; only an extreme minority of which reach this level of coverage/intensity.

I mis-read. I get it now, thanks for clearing that up

 

[Sawmaster]

I think Andy's argument was that such a perfect balance is uncommon for the atmosphere to achieve...but on the other hand I think Jeff's point on Stormtrack was that the surface cyclone(s) on 4/27/11 (or 4/3/74) weren't exceptionally intense, nor were the longwave troughs substantially different from others that have historically supported synoptically-evident tornado outbreaks; only an extreme minority of which reach this level of coverage/intensity.

I have to question Jeff's conclusion because almost never do I hear such words as were spoken days ahead of the 2011 outbreak. Never before and never since have I heard a Meteorologist say to best be ready for all hell to break loose because it looks like it will- especially 36 hours ahead of time.

So if the set-up is not uncommon, why haven't others been equally stringently warned? Clearly the 1974 and 2011 outbreaks were noticeably different days ahead of time and quite unlike regular events even if the two mentioned aspects are fairly common in that range.

 

[Austin Dawg]

My apologies if this playlist has been posted. It's a list of tornadoes that were scary for the videographer.

 

[WxChristo]

that is a single video, idk where that
Absolutely insane tornado, very high end damage/contextuals (look at the sidewalk)
though the trees have always been confusing on how they are not debarked/how some bushes are untouched
list is

 

[Sawmaster]

My apologies if this playlist has been posted. It's a list of tornadoes that were scary for the videographer.

All I see is the famous Clem Schultz vid

 

[atrainguy]

Click on the video so you are taken straight to it's Youtube page, and the playlist it is a part of is on the right.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

Here’s a collage of some images I managed to dig up from one of my favorite tornadoes and outbreaks to research, the May 24, 2011 El Reno EF5 tornado. These are all in the Calumet-Interstate 40 area where the tornado first peaked, and Doppler on Wheels recorded winds in excess of 290mph. Easily some of the most extreme damage ever documented. Going to post another gallery of damage at the Cactus 117 oil rig, damage there is absolutely unreal and some of the images have likely not been seen before.

 

[TH2002]

Here’s a collage of some images I managed to dig up from one of my favorite tornadoes and outbreaks to research, the May 24, 2011 El Reno EF5 tornado. These are all in the Calumet-Interstate 40 area where the tornado first peaked, and Doppler on Wheels recorded winds in excess of 290mph. Easily some of the most extreme damage ever documented. Going to post another gallery of damage at the Cactus 117 oil rig, damage there is absolutely unreal and some of the images have likely not been seen before.

This photo in particular:

Are these the vehicles that were hurled (with fatalities) from Interstate 40 where reportedly only pieces of the frames were recovered? That's definitely what it appears to be.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Here’s a collage of some images I managed to dig up from one of my favorite tornadoes and outbreaks to research, the May 24, 2011 El Reno EF5 tornado. These are all in the Calumet-Interstate 40 area where the tornado first peaked, and Doppler on Wheels recorded winds in excess of 290mph. Easily some of the most extreme damage ever documented. Going to post another gallery of damage at the Cactus 117 oil rig, damage there is absolutely unreal and some of the images have likely not been seen before.

The vegetation, ground scouring and debris granulation from this thing, in particular this area, is on par with Bridge Creek at times. Unreal.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

So today is the 32nd anniversary of the 1991 Plains outbreak that spawned the Andover F5 and Red Rock, Oologah and Skiatook F4s, curious if any new damage photos from this outbreak are available on any blogs, social media posts or NOAA?

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

This photo in particular:

Are these the vehicles that were hurled (with fatalities) from Interstate 40 where reportedly only pieces of the frames were recovered? That's definitely what it appears to be.

The exact vehicles with confirmed fatalities varies on the source, I’ve heard several reports that the vehicle that was literally speared into the tree had fatalities, while I’ve also heard that the vehicles that were thrown into the wooded area were the ones with fatalities. It really depends on the source, but those vehicles that were essentially pulverized to bits seem to match the description so I wouldn’t be surprised if those were the correct ones. These two vehicles were also thrown long distances as well however I’m not sure if they originated from I-40 or just north of there where there were more fatalities in automobiles.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

The vegetation, ground scouring and debris granulation from this thing, in particular this area, is on par with Bridge Creek at times. Unreal.

El Reno 2011 had a much longer and in some locations wider swath of EF4 and EF5 damage than Bridge Creek. It’s hard to say which tornado was more violent and imo they both seem pretty equal in intensity, but in terms of destructive potential El Reno 2011 takes it without a doubt. On the ground 63 miles for nearly 2 hours is almost unprecedented for the plains.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

El Reno 2011 had a much longer and in some locations wider swath of EF4 and EF5 damage than Bridge Creek. It’s hard to say which tornado was more violent and imo they both seem pretty equal in intensity, but in terms of destructive potential El Reno 2011 takes it without a doubt. On the ground 63 miles for nearly 2 hours is almost unprecedented for the plains.

Well, Red Rock lasted 66 miles and was on for almost 2 hours (it was a fast mover too) and Ruskin Heights was on the ground for over 70 miles, not completely unprecedented. They probably both achieved 300+mph wind speeds at some points, the difference is Bridge Creek hit peak intensity in a smaller area and weakened to high-end F4/low end F5 for the majority of its path through the OKC metro area and yeah El Reno sustained EF5 intensity for much longer. That said, "wider" and "longer" isn't necessarily a guarantee of more intense. They're both comparable.
Also, the ground scouring from Bridge Creek was visible from satellite for years afterward, was El Reno's as bad as that?

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

Well, Red Rock lasted 66 miles and was on for almost 2 hours (it was a fast mover too) and Ruskin Heights was on the ground for over 70 miles, not completely unprecedented. They probably both achieved 300+mph wind speeds at some points, the difference is Bridge Creek hit peak intensity in a smaller area and weakened to high-end F4/low end F5 for the majority of its path through the OKC metro area and yeah El Reno sustained EF5 intensity for much longer. That said, "wider" and "longer" isn't necessarily a guarantee of more intense. They're both comparable.
Also, the ground scouring from Bridge Creek was visible from satellite for years afterward, was El Reno's as bad as that?

You’re right but the width of violent damage and duration in this comparison more so shows that had El Reno 2011 taken a similar track as Bridge Creek it could’ve been a potential worse case scenario with much more damage caused. The scar persisting for so long in the Bridge Creek area more so had to do with the amount of vegetation in that area as well. Here’s also a satellite image of the El Reno path about a month after the tornado, for how rural the areas impacted by the tornado were it’s pretty remarkable for the scar to be that visible:

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

You’re right but the width of violent damage and duration in this comparison more so shows that had El Reno 2011 taken a similar track as Bridge Creek it could’ve been a potential worse case scenario with much more damage caused. The scar persisting for so long in the Bridge Creek area more so had to do with the amount of vegetation in that area as well. Here’s also a satellite image of the El Reno path about a month after the tornado, for how rural the areas impacted by the tornado were it’s pretty remarkable for the scar to be that visible:
View attachment 20167

I do wonder what would've happened if Bridge Creek-Moore hadn't weakened and went through the OKC metro area at full on high-end intensity *shudders".
Also that scar is impressive for rural areas, it reminds me of Smithville and Jarrell (no joke, Jarrell's scar is still visible 25 years later, at least parts of it). I do wonder what is the most violent documented tornado in Oklahoma history after this discussion...I feel like we've forgotten another event from way in the past.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

I do wonder what would've happened if Bridge Creek-Moore hadn't weakened and went through the OKC metro area at full on high-end intensity *shudders".
Also that scar is impressive for rural areas, it reminds me of Smithville and Jarrell (no joke, Jarrell's scar is still visible 25 years later, at least parts of it). I do wonder what is the most violent documented tornado in Oklahoma history after this discussion...I feel like we've forgotten another event from way in the past.

I’d say for modern history as in 1970-present would probably be either one of the what I like to refer as the big 3, being Bridge Creek-Moore ‘99, El Reno ‘11, and Moore ‘13 at least in my opinion. All 3 of them caused similar extreme damage and were among the most intense in recent history. Anything prior to that is hard to really determine due to lack of information and detailed damage descriptions or photos due to the time period.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

I’d say for modern history as in 1970-present would probably be either one of the what I like to refer as the big 3, being Bridge Creek-Moore ‘99, El Reno ‘11, and Moore ‘13 at least in my opinion. All 3 of them caused similar extreme damage and were among the most intense in recent history. Anything prior to that is hard to really determine due to lack of information and detailed damage descriptions or photos due to the time period.

I think Red Rock is one of the most violent in Oklahoma's history; it was basically El Reno if it stayed over open country for its entire existence. Of course it didn't hit any populated areas and encountered very few man-made structures in its path (so it's true potential will never be known) but it did do ground and pavement scouring and toppled a massive oil rig near the end of its life so it probably ability to do El Reno-type damage.