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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

CheeselandSkies said:
By all means watch whatever you please, I was just giving my personal opinion. Ryan Hall did a good job with his 12/10/21 coverage which if I recall correctly was how he gained a lot of followers in the first place, but since then in my opinion he's made some questionable decisions which have influenced my choice to watch other creators instead (as an aside, James Spann/ABC 33/40 don't seem to be posting the daily Weather Xtreme videos anymore, which is a big loss).

Edit: James is still posting videos, he's just calling them the "morning/afternoon briefing" now and some if not most of them are live-streamed so they don't show up under the normal "videos" tab on his channel page.

Now back on board your regularly scheduled hype train for this upcoming weather event...
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It's a YouTube channel. Thumbnails are supposed to catch your eyes. No one is paying him a salary and he's fighting for clicks. There's a downside to using thumbnails like this. When you don't deliver, you will pretty much end up in the trash. You will end up not getting clicks .

I like Ryan. He does go over the top sometimes but I still like him.
 
12z GEFS tracks the low through MO/IL with some spread. I would still focus more on the general idea the ensembles are showing, and not get hung up on every run of the deterministic models right now. The low will likely occlude and begin filling as it translates west to east across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Still a lot of things to work out, but clearly a good synoptic signal for a multi-day severe weather event. Regardless of when the trough ejects, the Southern Plains to the Deep South will all have a severe threat.
 
Here's James Spann's take on it:

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be a warm, breezy day with developing showers along with a high in the 77-81 degree range. A more meaningful severe weather threat unfolds Thursday night into Friday morning as a dynamic weather system will race through the state. SPC has much of the state covered in a severe weather risk during the time frame.
For now it looks like the main window for severe storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. Thursday until 9:00 a.m. Friday, and the main threat will come from damaging straight line winds. But, a tornado or two can't be ruled out based on the forecast wind profiles.
This will be similar to the system that moved through Oklahoma last night... very strong dynamics (wind fields), but marginal thermodynamics (instability). We will be much more specific about the magnitude of the threat once we get within 60 hours of the event and can see high resolution models.
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You know what, it JUST hit me… 3/3/2023 AND….

talkweather.com

Severe WX - Sunday March 3 Severe Threat

Over the past day or two, the Euro has been consistent in depicting an embedded shortwave with associated surface cyclogenesis across AL/GA on Sunday. A broad warm sector spreads across the area and with a good amount of shear, it looks like severe weather, including tornadoes, is a good bet...
talkweather.com talkweather.com
 
ColdFront said:
How were the lower levels looking instability wise?
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Varies, some soundings had substantial 3CAPE (>50j/kg), others less (but still non-zero). After what happened last night in Oklahoma with the extreme low-level shear apparently overcoming a very stout low-level inversion, I'm not sure what to believe anymore.
 
KevinH said:
You know what, it JUST hit me… 3/3/2023 AND….

talkweather.com

Severe WX - Sunday March 3 Severe Threat

Over the past day or two, the Euro has been consistent in depicting an embedded shortwave with associated surface cyclogenesis across AL/GA on Sunday. A broad warm sector spreads across the area and with a good amount of shear, it looks like severe weather, including tornadoes, is a good bet...
talkweather.com talkweather.com
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That was a rough day.
 
JayF said:
That was a rough day.
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Yes, the Beauregard TOR passes a few miles north of me.

Not to derail this thread, but I did like the micro MD the SPC issued that basically predicted that EF4 though. THAT was awesome.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 145

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
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KevinH said:
Yes, the Beauregard TOR passes a few miles north of me.

Not to derail this thread, but I did like the micro MD the SPC issued that basically predicted that EF5 though. THAT was awesome.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 145

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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Ef4* lol
 
KevinH said:
Yes, the Beauregard TOR passes a few miles north of me.

Not to derail this thread, but I did like the micro MD the SPC issued that basically predicted that EF5 though. THAT was awesome.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 145

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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That was a very interesting setup, quite a localized "sweet spot" for such a violent tornado.

Also notable that in 2019 as of March 3rd they were only on Watch No. 7 for the year, as of today we're already on No. 47 for 2023! A very active winter season.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
That was a very interesting setup, quite a localized "sweet spot" for such a violent tornado.

Also notable that in 2019 as of March 3rd they were only on Watch No. 7 for the year, as of today we're already on No. 47 for 2023! A very active winter season.
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I had saw many deep dives, I think the consensus was some deep but unexpected height falls that backed the winds pretty good in that spot from what i read.
 
JayF said:
It seems like this is getting worse through different topics. Like people are posting click bait titles and then not even talking about the subject in the title at all in the video. Not sure how YouTube can fix this though.
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Just to quickly insert my opinion, yeah there thumbnails are a tad sketchy including his wording for each event

However, you can't really call it clickbait since its almost exactly what he has in the video and he's always clear and right down to the point

It's also worth noting that he's done Fortnite streaming in the past, so his streaming style might be a tad alien to some in the weather community, but iirc he also was a TV met at one point. I trust his streaming, and his community discord server is ripe with people who have tons more common knowledge and can keep me up to date very quickly.
 
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