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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

06Z GFS SBCAPE + sounding from Haralson Co. GA valid at 18Z.
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CIPS D4 shows 30% through TX, OK, MO, and MS. D5 shows 15% extending through MS, much of AL, GA, SC, and extending up through NC. Curious to see if higher probabilities extend into the areas highlighted in D5
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Sooo...00Z Friday (6 PM CST Thursday) is now within NAM range as of 12Z.

It appears to be less progressive with the system, with the surface low near Wichita Falls, TX at that time, and the forecast soundings along the dryline just as ominous as they have been on the GFS for many days now.

It's kind of interesting how the GFS went through that phase of drastically speeding up the system to the point where I was questioning if the warm sector was even gonna still be on land anywhere by the time of peak heating on Friday...now it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Thursday trends to another TX/OK threat and Friday in MS/AL/GA (I personally am not forecasting this outcome as of yet, just pointing out that it seems to be back on the table).
 

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CheeselandSkies said:
Sooo...00Z Friday (6 PM CST Thursday) is now within NAM range as of 12Z.

It appears to be less progressive with the system, with the surface low near Wichita Falls, TX at that time, and the forecast soundings along the dryline just as ominous as they have been on the GFS for many days now.

It's kind of interesting how the GFS went through that phase of drastically speeding up the system to the point where I was questioning if the warm sector was even gonna still be on land anywhere by the time of peak heating on Friday...now it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Thursday trends to another TX/OK threat and Friday in MS/AL/GA (I personally am not forecasting this outcome as of yet, just pointing out that it seems to be back on the table).
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this whole event could fall flat on its face but it still wouldnt change the fact that this sounding, like several others thus far, checks a lot of boxes you hate to see checked. very intriguing few days ahead.
 
Probably gunna see a large moderate/ enhanced risk tommorow on the day 3. Setting the stage for a high risk later on for missippi to east Texas.
 
NAM wants to move this entire setup into an OK/TX plains setup as it slows down the trough significantly. Some of the soundings i'm pulling up in SW OK/N TX are full on outbreak soundings...with high 3cape and insane kinematics given the thermodynamic profile. This is really catching my eye considering how the NAM has been so heavily underperforming on thermos recently.
 
As 12Z GFS rolls in...it remains considerably more progressive than the NAM (dryline MUCH further east over TX at FH084/00Z Friday) but just as potent as ever. Perhaps an even more dangerous setup for AR/LA/MS, if that closer proximity to the frontal forcing and the upper system allows for initiation further out in the warm sector Thursday evening.

I haven't really looked into what the mesoscale mechanisms for open warm sector initiation might be with this setup, since it's still pretty early for that and Trey's videos are usually good for that. :)
 
If a slowing trough evolution occurs / continues states east of Mississippi will likely have a higher chance at significant weather. Big trend to watch, especially if occlusion does not happen.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
As 12Z GFS rolls in...it remains considerably more progressive than the NAM (dryline MUCH further east over TX at FH084/00Z Friday) but just as potent as ever. Perhaps an even more dangerous setup for AR/LA/MS, if that closer proximity to the frontal forcing and the upper system allows for initiation further out in the warm sector Thursday evening.

I haven't really looked into what the mesoscale mechanisms for open warm sector initiation might be with this setup, since it's still pretty early for that and Trey's videos are usually good for that. :)
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Extreme height falls is one. Which we have
 
12z GFS with a PDS TOR sounding over my house at 21z Friday.
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Extreme height falls is one. Which we have
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Height falls are more of a synoptic-scale feature associated with the big trough.

I'm looking more for things like subtle 700mb shortwaves (which it appears we might have one, check out the little kinks in the height contours over SE AR/SW MS at FH084), and surface confluence bands which are gonna be hard to pick out until we get well into hi-res CAM range.
 
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