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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

I don’t usually like to focus absolutely massively on what x outlook will be on x day but I do have to agree and think this is the type of setup Day 3 Moderate risks have been issued for in the past. CSU has been saying 45%# since yesterday as well. Either way the system looks likely to be bad.
 
just now looking at this system, seems like its being hyped pretty good already but I am failing to see what its all about other than low placement and strength. Seems that instability is lacking

edit: I am looking at this from a North AL lens
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Don't know how accurate Ryan hall is but his video popped up on my featured YouTube feed lol
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I absolutely loathe those sensationalist, clickbait titles and thumbnail images. I lose interest in whatever else a creator has to say when they resort to that.

He may not be wrong about this upcoming event being a "huge outbreak," but when you call every potential that comes down the pipeline that, it loses all meaning.
 
keithGA said:
Interesting tidbit from the overnight AFD from FFC:

The next significant weather system begins to come together on
Thursday night/Friday morning as a deep, stout shortwave digs
into the Southern Plains. This shortwave will rapidly organize a
strong surface low pressure system, with organized frontal
boundaries that is progged to be centered somewhere around
the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday morning.
Compared to yesterday, the low pressures progression has risen
significantly towards the North and is beginning to show signals
of occlusion by the time the front reaches the NW corner of the
forecast area on Friday morning, which may undercut the potential
severity of the system with more limited upper-level support,
surface convergence, and instability than previously forecast.
(This change is similar to the frontal passage and severe threat
that this coming system on Monday has undergone) However,
significant values of severe parameters in regards to low- and
deep-level shear and moisture continue to be prevalent. Despite
some model uncertainty on timing and positioning, a 15% Convective
Outlook had been issued by SPC, based on the potential severity
of this system, and will need to be monitored closely through the
week.
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What do the highlighted words mean in other words? Lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Don't know how accurate Ryan hall is but his video popped up on my featured YouTube feed lol
Click to expand...

It seems like this is getting worse through different topics. Like people are posting click bait titles and then not even talking about the subject in the title at all in the video. Not sure how YouTube can fix this though.
 
JayF said:
It seems like this is getting worse through different topics. Like people are posting click bait titles and then not even talking about the subject in the title at all in the video. Not sure how YouTube can fix this though.
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I was about to watch this video, but just changed my mind. If this is what Ryan did in this video then he deserves every thumbs down vote he gets. Don’t do that to people.
 
base_reflectivity_wind-nestSE-2023022612-108.jpg
base_reflectivity_wind-nestSE-2023022612-105.jpg
 
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JayF said:
It seems like this is getting worse through different topics. Like people are posting click bait titles and then not even talking about the subject in the title at all in the video. Not sure how YouTube can fix this though.
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Convective chronicles and trey is about the only reliable YouTuber for in depth analysis that I've found
 
Interestingly enough, there seems to be increased variability in models again regarding timing. I know this is just stating the obvious, but we have different models which each bring different solutions, but none of these solutions have no significant/major threat - just differences in where/when the significant thread occurs. So we could potentially see a higher event all the way from Oklahoma/Texas to Georgia and anywhere in between. So probably not a question of 'If' anymore (In terms of the large scale setup not smaller details that reveal closer to the event).

All of that being said, I reckon LA, AR, E TX and MS seem most likely to be the bullseye for now. Yet the UKMET seems keen to bring a secondary bullseye GA+AL extending up into KY on Friday afternoon. Not massive model support but bears watching.
 
KevinH said:
I was about to watch this video, but just changed my mind. If this is what Ryan did in this video then he deserves every thumbs down vote he gets. Don’t do that to people.
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By all means watch whatever you please, I was just giving my personal opinion. Ryan Hall did a good job with his 12/10/21 coverage which if I recall correctly was how he gained a lot of followers in the first place, but since then in my opinion he's made some questionable decisions which have influenced my choice to watch other creators instead (as an aside, James Spann/ABC 33/40 don't seem to be posting the daily Weather Xtreme videos anymore, which is a big loss).

Edit: James is still posting videos, he's just calling them the "morning/afternoon briefing" now and some if not most of them are live-streamed so they don't show up under the normal "videos" tab on his channel page.

Now back on board your regularly scheduled hype train for this upcoming weather event...
 
CheeselandSkies said:
By all means watch whatever you please, I was just giving my personal opinion. Ryan Hall did a good job with his 12/10/21 coverage which if I recall correctly was how he gained a lot of followers in the first place, but since then in my opinion he's made some questionable decisions which have influenced my choice to watch other creators instead (as an aside, James Spann/ABC 33/40 don't seem to be posting the daily Weather Xtreme videos anymore, which is a big loss).

Edit: James is still posting videos, he's just calling them the "morning briefing" now and some if not most of them are live-streamed so they don't show up under the normal "videos" tab on his channel page.

Now back on board your regularly scheduled hype train for this upcoming weather event...
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James Spann does one every day, morning and afternoon. Just not the weekends, unless we are getting severe weather that day.
 
Scott81 said:
James Spann does one every day, morning and afternoon. Just not the weekends, unless we are getting severe weather that day.
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Yep, corrected myself above, I just had a little trouble finding them because of YouTube placing "normal" video uploads and stream archives under different tabs on users' channel pages; as well as the missing weekend videos as you mentioned.
 
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