Severe Weather Threat - November 3rd-6th, 2022

[southmdwatcher]

The Hill County TX storm is discrete and rotating, heading NNE

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Strong rotation over Whitney, TX. Tornado warning issued.

 

[TornadoFan]

...20Z Update...

...OK/TX/AR/LA...
Recent surface analysis placed a low near BVO (in northeast OK) with
a cold front extending southwestward across central OK to another
low southwest of SPS (in northwest TX). A dryline extends
south-southward from this second low through the Edwards Plateau.
Upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints precede this front from southeast OK
southward into the TX Hill Country.

Recent 18Z FWD sounding shows the capping in place at 12Z has eroded
amid a moistening boundary layer and modest 700-mb cooling. Low- to
mid-level flow has also strengthened during this period, increasing
to near 60 kt around 850-mb. This is in line with previous forecast
reasoning, with the warm-sector becoming very kinematically
supportive of supercells capable of tornadoes.

Thus far, modest thermodynamics appear to be the limiting factor.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent will continue to increase
while low-level moisture advection persists. Additional storm
development now appears underway across central TX as well as west
of the Metroplex.

The overall forecast remains the same. An initially discrete mode is
expected throughout the warm sector where very favorable low-level
and deep-layer shear profiles support updraft rotation and tornadoes
(including strong tornadoes).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Need a tornado over the city of West, TX.

 

[TH2002]

Second warning for the Durant area with a different, more isolated cell. Couplet looks tighter too

 

[southmdwatcher]

Abbott TX storm is starting to have the hook. Now it is tornado warned, this is southeast of the first Hill County TX storm

 

[southmdwatcher]

This rotating storm seems heading for Mertens, just east of Waxahachie and then just east of Dallas.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Mertens, Frost, Irene and up to Bardwell need to take precautions. Storm is rotating and hooking more.

 

[southmdwatcher]

TVS near Irene on GrLevel2 Analyst heading NNE, significant hook developing.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[southmdwatcher]

 

[TornadoFan]

I think that Mertens storm is gonna go nuts.

 

[Austin Dawg]

TWC with a Live TOR warning and I counted 12 commercials before the Local on the 8's

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Structure continuing to improve.

 

[TornadoFan]

Rotation is continuing to increase as well.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Wow that supercell heading NE from Frost to Bardwell is really getting it's act together.

 

[southmdwatcher]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looks down now.

 

[Tennie]

TOR-warned cell is less than ten minutes from Ennis!

 

[Austin Dawg]