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Severe Weather Threat November 24-25, 2025

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
With how CAMs been regarding these cells and their robustness, i don't blame them not going for it. But given that there was subtle hints yesterday towards storm evolution like this, CAPE hasn't even fully advected into Alabama yet..... So how are these updrafts gonna look like in 1.5k MLCAPE? There is a lot of real estate for these storms to go for it.
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Worth noting that CAMs don't seem to be handling initiation well right now. Latest (16Z) run of the HRRR seems less atrocious, but their utility is becoming limited the further in we go.
 
KevinH said:
I feel like a new MD is warranted lol
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AAAAAAAND….. right on cue

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251739Z - 252015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OUT OF
CONVECTION ALONG A CONFLUENCE BAND IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA. A
TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE NEED
FOR A WATCH IS NOT CERTAIN, BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DEEPENING ALONG A
CONFLUENCE ZONE IN SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST WEAK ROTATION OVER THE PAST
HOUR. KBMX/KMXX VAD DATA SHOW ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROMOTE AROUND 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN ALABAMA.
FORCING FOR ASCENT AT MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT THIS MAY ALSO
ALLOW DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN DISCRETE. THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION IS FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF
UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE AT LEAST POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
COULD ALSO OCCUR. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF BETTER
FORCING KEEP STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY UNCERTAIN, BUT A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE DEEPENING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..WENDT/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2025
 
STP already at 2 in SW AL. Instability will be advecting northward rather quickly. Storms in the SW third of the state will be the ones to watch as they move NE.
1764092579212.png
 
Clancy said:
Worth noting that CAMs don't seem to be handling initiation well right now. Latest (16Z) run of the HRRR seems less atrocious, but their utility is becoming limited the further in we go.
Click to expand...
I agree, the CAMs have kinda set false expectations for this setup. Stuff is clearly more robust and way more convection (maybe a good thing but regardless can go 50/50) then depicted rn. CAPE continues with northward extent at the moment, so we're not done setting up the stage today
 
Worth noting (I know I just complained about CAMs but these values remain pretty accurate) that SRH is more than enough - it has uptrended significantly since yesterday and the boundary is intensifying it. Widespread values of 350+ m2/s2, with pockets exceeding 400.
1764092814627.png1764092824094.png
 
Clancy said:
Yep, went outflow-dominant. But it's also bigger now. May be a problem down the road.
View attachment 48964
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Rotation has intensified again. It's actually heading into a local maximum of SRH, so it may get more productive here in the coming hour.
1764093958570.png
 
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