WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Agree. Shades of a certain January outbreak from 2023 I'm getting
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Severe Weather Threat November 24-25, 2025
- Thread starter MichelleH
- Start date
Central Ohio Wx
Member
The Autauga County EF3 and the Selma EF2 immediately come to mind.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Half a hour ago, we barely had any rotating updrafts. Now I can see at least five subtle attempts, low level shear is absolutely popping in quick right now and i think that isn't a great sign.
KevinH
Member
I did not see that
Kds86z
Member
10% would’ve perhaps been needed?
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Yes, probably, in that corridor south of I-20.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
With how CAMs been regarding these cells and their robustness, i don't blame them not going for it. But given that there was subtle hints yesterday towards storm evolution like this, CAPE hasn't even fully advected into Alabama yet..... So how are these updrafts gonna look like in 1.5k MLCAPE? There is a lot of real estate for these storms to go for it.
Kds86z
Member
What is the main forcing mechanism for storm initiation
AJS
Member
I don’t like how these storms are looking so early on.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
There is that 500 mb jet of course, and additionally i do think some subtle feeder bands of convection from the Gulf also coming in. CAMs may be struggling due to poor mid level lapse rates.
The amount of storms rotating have drastically increased in the last hour. Northeast of clanton theres a pretty good rotation
Ozonelayer
Member
Not liking what im seeing in western Alabama.
Definetely looking good storm mode wise right now. Nice cell up near Selma aswell. I think depending on how things evolve, a conditional strong tornado or two is possible. But thats just speculatory so take this with a grain of salt.
Definetely looking good storm mode wise right now. Nice cell up near Selma aswell. I think depending on how things evolve, a conditional strong tornado or two is possible. But thats just speculatory so take this with a grain of salt.
Kds86z
Member
Isn’t that an issue? Poor lapse rates
Kds86z
Member
Hmm,
joshoctober16
Member
might be starting up soon.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yes, it is a problem but since it seems storms have plenty of mergers to feed off, it shouldn't be a MAJOR issue. One big, consolidated supercell in this environment and there may be problems
KevinH
Member
They didn’t think to upgrade to 10% with the last update. Maybe with the next one depending on how things look? They have more info than we do lol
joshoctober16
Member
party of hooks
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
If things start firing off early I'm not sure if they'll have enough time; the next one is scheduled over two hours from now. I doubt they'd pull an emergency update (do they even do those) for a situation like this.