CheeselandSkies
Member
View attachment 26795
Surprised they didn't go with a 15% risk.
Relatively weak environmental low-level shear seems to be the big factor preventing higher confidence in a more widespread significant tornado threat today, given strong CAM signal for multiple discrete supercells. Complex/difficult to predict storm-scale/boundary interactions will be key. If there were a stronger surface response with a deepening low and strong LLJ, things would be different.