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Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

JBishopwx

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Fred Gossage

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New thread for Tuesday and beyond this coming week.

Yes, I made a severe thread. Beware.
You just had to make the one for the threat parked over my viewing area... :oops:;)

little women atlanta ms. juicy GIF by Lifetime Telly
 

Fred Gossage

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It seems that the Canadian, ICON, UKMET, and even the Euro ensembles to an extent, are trending more toward the GFS than the op Euro with relation to the structure of the 850mb low-level jet Wednesday overnight. It's less interrupted than what the op Euro models (which seems to be convectively-driven) and is able to result in stronger wind speeds at that level. If this is the solution we're headed to, pending storm mode evolution, this is what would allow for a more elevated overnight threat across places like southern TN, north MS, north AL, northwest GA, etc., including the potential for tornadoes.
 
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It seems that the Canadian, ICON, UKMET, and even the Euro ensembles to an extent, are trending more toward the GFS than the op Euro with relation to the structure of the 850mb low-level jet Wednesday overnight. It's less interrupted than what the op Euro models (which seems to be convectively-driven) and is able to result in stronger wind speeds at that level. If this is the solution we're headed to, pending storm mode evolution, this is what would allow for a more elevated overnight threat across places like southern TN, north MS, north AL, northwest GA, etc., including the potential for tornadoes.
Yeah I’m getting more more concerned Wednesday also…. Looking more likely spc starts the upgrade in morning s update for Wednesday
 

Fred Gossage

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I think there's a significant daytime/evening threat to the west and north of those areas I mentioned above... and those areas are probably the overall greater threat as a whole. The nocturnal LLJ ramp up and how efficient it is will determine the outcome in the southern edge of the risk for the overnight, but it may be an elevated level threat as well.
 
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Noah Bergen (the tweeter) did an absolutely fantastic job playing the 2nd man role on WPSD Paducah during the 12/10/21 KY outbreak. Covering an event of that magnitude that early in his career as well as he did is huge kudos

Yeah, although they had only one cell producing violent tornadoes for hours on end instead of 3-4 at once (although to be fair, there WERE other severe storms in their viewing area); that was the best local coverage I've seen since 33/40 on 4/27/11.

0Z NAM giving me a little bit of hopium for Wednesday evening with some instability building in the Quad Cities area in the presence of very strong low-level shear (which appears to be induced by a secondary surface low in the vicinity). Will continue to monitor to see if it's just a mirage, or will actually end up meriting a chase.
 

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Over night 0z runs getting pretty serious for Wednesday… just a violent air mass setting up across parts Ms delta lower Ohio valley and mid south regions … the tornado risk has increased along with it too. Spc already mention some strong tornadoes …. Trends continue look for moderate risk easily coming later outlooks .
 
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