Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 26795
Surprised they didn't go with a 15% risk.

Relatively weak environmental low-level shear seems to be the big factor preventing higher confidence in a more widespread significant tornado threat today, given strong CAM signal for multiple discrete supercells. Complex/difficult to predict storm-scale/boundary interactions will be key. If there were a stronger surface response with a deepening low and strong LLJ, things would be different.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Eh. Messy mode

That’s not yet certain yet. Watching cells sw Missouri see how it plays out

 

[TH2002]

Watch the 2% risk area over Iowa become the most prolific tornado producer of the day

 

[jaymackd3]

updated on SPC N AL, N MS, N GA now in ENH

 

[wx_guy]

I feel like with today's storms and there being several rounds of discrete + MCS clusters, it's going to get very complex and messy later on today. It may be a day with lots of hail/wind and not many tornadoes, or it may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency out the barn door with rabid horse tornadoes who knows

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

It seems they have decided everyone will either call it a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency or say TOR probs should have been higher so they’re gonna let us guess their reasoning. I like it— bold!

 

[wx_guy]

I haven't seen anyone post yet (or I might've missed it, I'm eating lunch at work lol)

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Eh. Messy mode

Something Trey touched on. Some stretches of time today will feature semi-discrete elements, but forcing is prodigal in a mostly uncapped warm sector so convection is going to be all over the place. You can have 5k K/j of cape all day long, but if low level winds are paltry or it’s a cluster of storms competing for it, it’s not going to amount to much of a sig. tornado threat

 

[MMWX]

Still another update (assuming it updates on time) before the event is supposed to kick off. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they are playing a little bit safer after how two days ago played out.

 

[Kds86z]

It is 2024, who knows what could happen on a 10% day.

 

[Aaron Rider]

It's already really "soupy" here. It was 70 degrees when I got up at 5:30 and walking outside is like walking into a wet blanket.

The humidity was at 98 percent even here in Pennsylvania before sunrise. At 10 AM it was still easily the most humidity I've felt in years and the most ever in May.

 

[warneagle]

View attachment 26795
Surprised they didn't go with a 15% risk.

Mmm banana

I think they stayed with 10# because of questions about storm mode in the area with stronger low-level shear and questions about low-level shear in the area with better storm mode. Probably the right call in my book.

 

[warneagle]

New watch is up

 

[Austin Dawg]

If recent history is any indication of what might happen today, we have no idea what might happen or where it might happen.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Watch the 2% risk area over Iowa become the most prolific tornado producer of the day

Humor aside, Massachusetts has always had a few surprises. The Connecticut Valley is a nice little alley.

 

[Kds86z]

If recent history is any indication of what might happen today, we have no idea what might happen or where it might happen.

Amen to that!

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the 12z HREF tornado probabilities. If I recall correctly, the HREF never had a 30% on the HIGH the other day, so this is interesting.

 

[TH2002]

Humor aside, Massachusetts has always had a few surprises. The Connecticut Valley is a nice little alley.

If I'm not mistaken the Brimfield tornado occurred on a low risk day

 

[Clancy]

Here's the 12z HREF tornado probabilities. If I recall correctly, the HREF never had a 30% on the HIGH the other day, so this is interesting.

View attachment 26796

HREF rarely shows 30% probs. Surprised to see it not only show 30% but over such a large area, especially considering the uncertainties today.

 

[wx_guy]

HREF rarely shows 30% probs. Surprised to see it not only show 30% but over such a large area, especially considering the uncertainties today.

Yeah, it's an ensemble, so the HRRR, SREF, etc. all have to average their members to get 30%, so that's saying something. We'll have to see what happens.