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Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

One of those days that if the low level flow was just a bit stronger, it would get very ugly very quickly. I think the expansive nature of the strong instability/sufficient deep layer shear environment with quite a few storms warrants the probabilities issued, since I'd have to imagine at least a few storms will produce tornadoes via boundaries/storm mergers/etc. Greatest concern for me would be across portions of TN and S KY later, although I could see southern MO having some chances in the next few hours as supercells move towards Springfield.
 
18Z HRRR (only about halfway done atm) continues to look concerning for TN and parts of KY, AL/GA. Depicts at least 2 rounds of severe, one late tonight into the morning Thursday, followed shortly by another MCS.
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One of those days that if the low level flow was just a bit stronger, it would get very ugly very quickly. I think the expansive nature of the strong instability/sufficient deep layer shear environment with quite a few storms warrants the probabilities issued, since I'd have to imagine at least a few storms will produce tornadoes via boundaries/storm mergers/etc. Greatest concern for me would be across portions of TN and S KY later, although I could see southern MO having some chances in the next few hours as supercells move towards Springfield.
Yeah any kind of substantial tornado threat is really gonna be dependent on boundaries and mesoscale factors so I totally get the lower probabilities. Any kind of local enhancement of low-level shear could be an issue though.
 
Quite small tornado watch issued to cover western TN.

 
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