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Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

A

andyhb

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One of those days that if the low level flow was just a bit stronger, it would get very ugly very quickly. I think the expansive nature of the strong instability/sufficient deep layer shear environment with quite a few storms warrants the probabilities issued, since I'd have to imagine at least a few storms will produce tornadoes via boundaries/storm mergers/etc. Greatest concern for me would be across portions of TN and S KY later, although I could see southern MO having some chances in the next few hours as supercells move towards Springfield.
 
warneagle

warneagle

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andyhb said:
One of those days that if the low level flow was just a bit stronger, it would get very ugly very quickly. I think the expansive nature of the strong instability/sufficient deep layer shear environment with quite a few storms warrants the probabilities issued, since I'd have to imagine at least a few storms will produce tornadoes via boundaries/storm mergers/etc. Greatest concern for me would be across portions of TN and S KY later, although I could see southern MO having some chances in the next few hours as supercells move towards Springfield.
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Yeah any kind of substantial tornado threat is really gonna be dependent on boundaries and mesoscale factors so I totally get the lower probabilities. Any kind of local enhancement of low-level shear could be an issue though.
 
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