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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

UncleJuJu98 said:
Good grief Texas lol this is the latest hrrr run. Seems like a possible trend of higher impact. The last big tornado event Alabama had a couple weeks ago. It was around the range of 12-18 hours when parameters starting really booming if I remember correctly.

Hold on having trouble with pic. I'll upload it to this post.View attachment 17131
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Good thing the whole system isn't going to be 50-100 miles further north, those two supercells look like prime water wedge producers.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Good thing the whole system isn't going to be 50-100 miles further north, those two supercells look like prime water wedge producers.
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The spectacle will be amazing off the Texas and Louisiana coast if those storms form. I hope to see some awesome water spout photos.

Well may not actually be able to see it actually I think you have to be in the southeast flank to see it. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Good grief Texas lol this is the latest hrrr run. Seems like a possible trend of higher impact. The last big tornado event Alabama had a couple weeks ago. It was around the range of 12-18 hours when parameters starting really booming if I remember correctly.

Hold on having trouble with pic. I'll upload it to this post.View attachment 17131
Click to expand...
OMG… Good grief. What time is this for?

You gotta show the run details too man lol
 
Low level instability of 200 in that area is very concerning as well. Likely wouldn't be a wispy one. Still concern for shear being to strong. But I definitely know where my eyes will be tonight.

Overall instability is a good question though oof. This could be a huge hit or miss...

Any difference, for say a increase of dewpoint 1 or 2 degrees is huge
 
Peter Griffin said:
Just getting bad vibes from this one. In recent years these insanely high shear/lower instab setups have still produced some epic beasts. Even outperforming expectations sometimes. Hopefully there is a 'fly in the ointment' as mentioned above.
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March 2-3, 2020 is what always comes to mind with high shear/low CAPE setups ever since it happened. Also a perfect example of a dominant supercell just so happening to produce in the worst areas possible...
 
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