Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

[CheeselandSkies]

Good grief Texas lol this is the latest hrrr run. Seems like a possible trend of higher impact. The last big tornado event Alabama had a couple weeks ago. It was around the range of 12-18 hours when parameters starting really booming if I remember correctly.

Hold on having trouble with pic. I'll upload it to this post.View attachment 17131

Good thing the whole system isn't going to be 50-100 miles further north, those two supercells look like prime water wedge producers.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good thing the whole system isn't going to be 50-100 miles further north, those two supercells look like prime water wedge producers.

The spectacle will be amazing off the Texas and Louisiana coast if those storms form. I hope to see some awesome water spout photos.

Well may not actually be able to see it actually I think you have to be in the southeast flank to see it. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong

 

[KevinH]

Good grief Texas lol this is the latest hrrr run. Seems like a possible trend of higher impact. The last big tornado event Alabama had a couple weeks ago. It was around the range of 12-18 hours when parameters starting really booming if I remember correctly.

Hold on having trouble with pic. I'll upload it to this post.View attachment 17131

OMG… Good grief. What time is this for?

You gotta show the run details too man lol

 

[keithGA]

VWP out of Houston. Jesus Christ.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

VWP out of Houston. Jesus Christ.

View attachment 17133

That's incredible.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

VWP out of Houston. Jesus Christ.

View attachment 17133

If you have a isolated cell around that area that can take advantage or even a semi broken one. which hrrr hints at. That's upper echelon tornado strength wise. THAT is incredibly concerning. The environment around the Houston area tonight needs to be combed with a fine tooth brush.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Low level instability of 200 in that area is very concerning as well. Likely wouldn't be a wispy one. Still concern for shear being to strong. But I definitely know where my eyes will be tonight.

Overall instability is a good question though oof. This could be a huge hit or miss...

Any difference, for say a increase of dewpoint 1 or 2 degrees is huge

 

[atrainguy]

If the threat verifies, what time roughly will things start popping off tonight?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If the threat verifies, what time roughly will things start popping off tonight?

Actually the Houston threat is at around 2 o'clock wow. I thought It was later. Lot sooner than I thought

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, some very populated areas in the hot sector today.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mesoscale discussions may start in a few hours I'd watch there and see some of the wording.

 

[atrainguy]

Actually the Houston threat is at around 2 o'clock wow. I thought It was later. Lot sooner than I thought

Dang. A silver lining I guess is that it won't be nocturnal. Still sucks that the threat is strong in one of the largest urban areas in the USA.

 

[TH2002]

Just getting bad vibes from this one. In recent years these insanely high shear/lower instab setups have still produced some epic beasts. Even outperforming expectations sometimes. Hopefully there is a 'fly in the ointment' as mentioned above.

March 2-3, 2020 is what always comes to mind with high shear/low CAPE setups ever since it happened. Also a perfect example of a dominant supercell just so happening to produce in the worst areas possible...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I just get a uneasy feeling from this setup...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, check out that moisture influx on the Corpus Christi radar. Meso analysis shows warm sector storms to watch. I’m keeping an eye on the storm near San Diego, TX.

 

[KevinH]

Aaaaand TOR in 3…. 2…

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Aaaaand TOR in 3…. 2…

View attachment 17136

I think that one is not rooted to the surface yet, rotating like a top though

 

[OHWX97]

There's a cell west of Corpus Christi that bears watching. Appears to be starting to turn more towards the right.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[TornadoFan]