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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

Taylor Campbell said:
The 00z HRRR run is getting fed steroids this run. Significantly upping the parameters.
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It's only expected these last two events have really done that. I'm afraid we may have multiple strong/violent tornadoes.

That Houston area could really support a high end ef4/ef5 tornado. Legit violent tornado threat there, I'f a storm can utilize it
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
It's only expected these last two events have really done that. I'm afraid we may have multiple strong/violent tornadoes.

That Houston area could really support a high end ef4/ef5 tornado. Legit violent tornado threat there, I'f a storm can utilize it
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So despite CAPE values around 1,000-1,500 J/KG, mid 60s to around 70 temps, and dews in the Iow to mid 60s, low level shear and SRH will make up for it.
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
So despite CAPE values around 1,000-1,500 J/KG, mid 60s to around 70 temps, and dews in the Iow to mid 60s, low level shear and SRH will make up for it.
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Good question, I wouldn't say it makes up for it, 1000-1500 SBCAPE is pretty good for tornadoes and with really good low level shear SRH it meshes decent. Its kindve a odd thing major tornado threats don't take your 3000+ SBCAPE days to produce violent tornadoes; atleast in the deep south. there's a few different aspects with drier air and more profound EML which you kindve need higher instability values that occur in the south but usually not here.

There's different types of supercells that produce tornadoes that I've noticed over the years as well. Low topped low instability supercells and your normal moderate higher instability supercells, given the environment with adequate shear the environment In the south utilizes that and low instability supercells can produce ef3 tornadoes possibly borderline ef4 ; but are usually rather shortlived if my memory is correct compared to your higher topped supercells; unless the perfect atmosphere presents itself. not 100% sure but I think that's because the updraft and downdrafts get mixed easier because of the lower heights of the top leading to easier mixing with the drafts.
 
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RadarSPC.jpg
RadarSPC TOR.jpg
RadarSPC WIND.jpg
.THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today from the middle to upper
Texas Coast, spreading eastward across southern Louisiana and into
coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by
Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several tornadoes are
anticipated. A few strong tornadoes are expected.

...Gulf Coast Region...
An upper-level low over the southern Plains, and an associated
upper-level trough extending southward into northern Mexico, will
move eastward into central and south Texas today. A 70 to 90 knot
mid-level speed max will translate eastward through the base of the
trough, with the exit region of the jet overspreading the southern
Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture
advection will take place with the 60 Fahrenheit isodrosotherm
reaching about 80 statute miles inland across the middle Texas coast
by late morning. As surface temperatures warm, SBCAPE is forecast to
increase to around 1000 J/kg in the vicinity of Victoria with weaker
instability developing further inland. During the morning,
thunderstorms will move eastward across the Texas Hill Country. By
18Z, the storms will likely develop a severe threat, moving eastward
into the western edge of the moist airmass.

Near and ahead of the surface low, surface winds will be backed to
the south and southeast. This combined with 50 to 70 knot low-level
jet will create long and looped hodographs favorable for supercells
and tornadoes. The Victoria, Texas 18Z RAP forecast sounding has 0-3
km storm relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado
threat could develop relatively early in the day. Around midday and
throughout the afternoon, convective mode is expected to be
supercellular, as a cluster of storms moves eastward across the
Houston and Galveston areas. Strong speed shear, increasing from
near 20 knots at the surface to 50 knots at 850 mb, will make a
strong tornado possible with any supercell that becomes dominant.
Wind damage and isolated large hail will also likely accompany
supercells. The threat should spread eastward to the Beaumont/Port
Arthur areas by late afternoon.

The surface low will move northeastward into western Mississippi
this evening as a line organizes ahead of a cold front across the
lower Mississippi Valley. Some uncertainty exists concerning
convective mode. The current thinking is that some cells near the
Louisiana coast will remain supercellular and have a potential for
tornadoes. This would be especially true if the conditional threat
materializes of discrete cells developing ahead of the line. The
wind-damage threat will likely increase as the squall-line moves to
the central Gulf Coast around midnight. This line is forecast to
move eastward to the western Florida Panhandle by late in the period
and should maintain a wind-damage and tornado threat. There will be
the possibility of a strong tornado, mainly due to strong low-level
shear associated with the low-level jet.
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Situations like this where the potential, parameters and uncertainty are all high leaves me wondering... what could be a fly in the ointment?
 
KoD said:
Situations like this where the potential, parameters and uncertainty are all high leaves me wondering... what could be a fly in the ointment?
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Beyond the obvious question of how far north the warm sector gets, I think the biggest one will be storm mode, especially once you get into Mississippi and Alabama.
 
What I'm looking at is, that line temporarily dies down near the Mississippi coast and the fires all these supercells in the warm sector on the Florida panhandle and Alabama coastline.
 
Peter Griffin said:
Just getting bad vibes from this one. In recent years these high shear/lower instab setups have still produced some epic beasts. Even outperforming expectations sometimes. Hopefully there is a 'fly in the ointment' as mentioned above.
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Me too,

I think the base case of action now is to prepare for a significant weather event and hope for less. Because if we get into the hrrr range and things ramp up and start booming supercells ahead of the line. It's a little late. Like the last event in Alabama.
 
Good grief Texas lol this is the latest hrrr run. Seems like a possible trend of higher impact. The last big tornado event Alabama had a couple weeks ago. It was around the range of 12-18 hours when parameters starting really booming if I remember correctly.

Hold on having trouble with pic. I'll upload it to this post.Screenshot_20230124-074628-531.png
 
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