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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

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Wow....120knts at 500mb Thursday from this evenings 00Z GFS
 
Fred Gossage said:
00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.
Click to expand...
And at last, I'm here for it... LOL
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Megathread for the entire Mid-Late Feb period as this appears to be an extremely active period. Will we see 2023's first EF4+ from this? Who knows!
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If the latter half of the month is supposed to be very active, it could be less confusing to have a thread for each event (unless we end up with a sequence?).

It may be difficult to know which event are referring to in comments if several events are in the same thread (again, unless we end up with a sequence, which would count as one lol)

Not liking what the models have been saying :( Still 6-7 days out soooooooooo I want to see if/when the models flip flop. Y’all know how Dixie behaves…… it doesn’t.
 
Fred Gossage said:
00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.
Click to expand...
Glad to see you. Hate it took a threat, but I like your opinions when I am examining these possible events.
 
SR_swody6_PROB.png
SR_swody7_PROB.png

..Wednesday/Thursday (days 6-7)...
Medium-range models exhibit notable spread in the evolution of a
subsequent upstream mid-level trough forecast to move into the
central states and eventually Great Lakes. However, more
consistency/agreement is becoming evident in the ECMWF/Canadian
operational runs and the ECMWF ensemble mean/GEFS ensemble, with the
operational GFS the outlier. Factors seemingly warranting an
introduction of 15% severe probabilities include the strength of the
model-forecast storm system, and ample time for appreciable
modification of the airmass over the Gulf and Gulf Coast states.
Click to expand...
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol the guys at SPC went and ahead and did it lol. I'm gonna upload bham discussion.

*Nvm, they just mention the possibility of severe no breakdown or anything.
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I think they should have pulled the trigger. Models are consistent in the idea of a severe outbreak. I feel this one has a high ceiling and could be very bad but we will have to wait and see how models trend over the next few days
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol the guys at SPC went and ahead and did it lol. I'm gonna upload bham discussion.

*Nvm, they just mention the possibility of severe no breakdown or anything.
Click to expand...

Hazardous weather outlook for BMX does already have a 1 out of 5 for tornadoes Thursday and mentions tornadoes in the text. This far out, that's significant.
 
Left: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 SVR event within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
Right: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 tornado report within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.png
PRTORNC01_gefsF168.png
 
Clancy said:
Left: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 SVR event within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
Right: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 tornado report within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.png
PRTORNC01_gefsF168.png
Click to expand...
got Any top analogs from cips on the Time frame?
 
One thing i'm noticing is VERY strong advection of dry air into the warm sector. When I first looked at the euro I thought this level of dry air was unreasonable, but there's decent model agreement for just that - see the below gifs.

A strong dry air intrusion aloft would probably be a pretty bad scenario for dixie, considering this dry air will often clean out the warm sector to both foster destabilization and keep storms relatively discrete. In addition, it appears this dry air starts mixing out as it gets to the warm sector, and it's not that hot either, meaning getting a very strong cap out of it doesn't seem highly likely at this time.


700RH.gif


500RH.gif
 
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