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It will all depend on if the dynamic support pulls away I would think. I would be more concerned if I were in MS/LAI wonder how all this will play out in north alabama
Anxious see the 12z euro today … it’s had better dews getting further north than gfs begin withMore recent runs of the GFS are suggesting this system won't pull the warm sector quite as far north as some earlier ones suggested (no repeat of last 12/15). On the other hand, that increases the threat of significant snow across parts of the upper Midwest (possibly including my neighborhood) and may increase the severe threat further south since the main surface low is closer to the richer moisture. It also may be underdoing CAPE across parts of western TN/KY/southern IL and the MO bootheel where dewpoints still get into the upper 50s next Wednesday.
I don’t see most of TN, or KY being in play unless you are in west sections. I think most of the threat stays NW of AL as well.Anxious see the 12z euro today … it’s had better dews getting further north than gfs begin with
Yeah I’m talking western part Tennessee Kentucky ,I don’t see most of TN, or KY being in play unless you are in west sections. I think most of the threat stays NW of AL as well.
UHMCIPS/ Day 7......Hummm
View attachment 15890
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 091017
SPC AC 091017
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CST Fri Dec 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models, and their corresponding ensembles, continue to
depict a scenario fairly consistent with runs over the past couple
of days, with perhaps a slightly slower evolution of the progression
of the substantial upper trough/low. This feature is progged to
move across the Rockies Day 4/Monday, the central Plains Day
5/Tuesday, and then the Mid Missouri Valley Day 6/Wednesday, before
traversing the Midwest/Ohio Valley Day 7 and then the Central
Appalachians Day 8.
Day 4/Monday, as ascent increases across the southern Plains as
suggested by the onset of mid-level height falls, elevated
convection will evolve across the central and into the southern
Plains. Even south of the Red River, storms should remain largely
atop a shallow surface-based stable layer, suggesting that any
severe risk should be in the form of hail, and appearing
insufficient at this time to continue with the 15% risk area.
Day 5/Tuesday, progression of the front across the southern Plains
will occur, reaching the Ozarks/Arklatex/East Texas area by early
evening. Ahead of the front, strong southerly winds will advect
seasonably rich Gulf moisture northward, likely resulting in
sufficient instability for the development of severe/supercell
storms. At this time, the greatest risk remains apparent from
roughly the Arklatex region eastward straddling the
Arkansas/Louisiana border, where very strong/veering flow with
height should combine with ample CAPE to yield all-hazards severe
risk, including tornado potential.
Severe risk will likely continue overnight and into Day 6/Wednesday,
though a persistent antecedent surface high/cold air damming into
the southern Appalachians should suppress instability -- and thus
severe potential -- progressively farther southward as storms shift
eastward across the Gulf Coast states through the day. Still,
all-hazards severe risk is apparent across southern parts of
Mississippi and Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle overnight,
warranting inclusion of a 15% area for Day 6.
Day 7/Thursday, persistence of the damming high should continue to
suppress instability southward. While some severe risk could
locally evolve across the Florida Peninsula, potential appears too
low to warrant areal inclusion.
With the front currently expected to move offshore overnight
Thursday or early Friday, severe weather potential should shift away
from the mainland.
..Goss.. 12/09/2022